Analysis: Bitcoin relies heavily on its 65% HODLer base for support at key cost levels, with a potential chip reshuffle currently underway.

On November 26th, on-chain data analyst Murphy released an analysis stating that the Bitcoin CBD Quantiles Curve indicates that significant reshuffling of market chips is taking place. CBD Quantiles: BTC buy-in cost is divided into 1%-100% based on the address count to observe the distribution and migration direction of daily chip costs. The purple line represents the 65th percentile cost, meaning that 65% of addresses hold BTC at a cost lower than this value. The illustration shows that when BTC falls below $100,000, high-end chips (the red line at the 75th percentile) quickly move downward, while low-end chips (the purple line) move upward simultaneously. This indicates that high-end chips are being absorbed by low-end funds - meaning the market is experiencing a "shakeout." It is crucial for the current BTC price to find support at the purple line, indicating that 65% of addresses are still in a profitable state on-chain, providing the market with a last glimmer of hope. However, it is important to note that this includes some long-term inactive or "frozen" addresses, such as Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings. Looking back at the previous cycle, when the support of the purple line was broken, Bitcoin entered a long-term downtrend. As the price fell, new funds were forced to turn over to lower percentiles, leading the market into a deep bear phase. Short-term observation: if the purple line continues to provide support, chip reshuffling may still be ongoing, providing the market with a breathing opportunity; if the support is lost, a new round of downward pressure may be on the horizon.