Grayscale: Bitcoin Market Structure No Longer Following "Four-Year Cycle," Institutional Inflows and Macro Environment Reshaping BTC Price Trends

On December 9, Cointelegraph reported that Grayscale has stated the Bitcoin pricing model driven by halving events— which defined patterns in Bitcoin’s early history— is losing its impact. As more Bitcoin enters circulation, the relative effect of each halving is waning. Grayscale noted the current Bitcoin market is now more dominated by institutional capital, rather than the retail speculation that drove past cycles. Unlike the explosive price surges of 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin’s recent rally has been more controlled. Grayscale added that the subsequent 30% pullback also aligns more closely with a typical bull market correction. Interest rate expectations, progress on U.S. bipartisan-led crypto regulation, and the trend of Bitcoin integrating into institutional portfolios are increasingly shaping market trends.