Analysis: Currently, Bitcoin is in a fragile equilibrium state, and if it falls below $85,000, the decline will further intensify

On December 24th, CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr noted that the **Net Pressure Imbalance indicator**—which measures the buy-sell pressure ratio for short-term holders—has fallen to the 5th percentile of its three-year distribution. This level signals that short-term holders’ buy and sell pressure are currently in balance. The Net Pressure Imbalance is calculated as the difference between short-term holders’ weighted sell pressure and weighted buy pressure: a positive value means higher current sell pressure, while a negative value signals stronger buy pressure. As of now, the 24-hour moving average of the indicator stands at 4.79, with the asset priced at $87,324. The three-year median for the indicator is 73.17, meaning sell pressure typically dominates during growth phases. The analyst added that historical periods of balanced pressure have been unstable—often shifting to an uptrend in bull markets before reverting to sell pressure dominance. However, the current setup is more complex: the asset’s price has stayed 13.9% below the **Short-Term Holder Realized Price** for nearly two months, leaving short-term holders underwater (a sign the market has entered a bearish phase). A further drop below $85,000 combined with a Net Pressure Imbalance reading below -15 would signal an intensified pullback.