Insight: Bitcoin Sees First-Year Decrease Post-Halving, 'Four-Year Cycle' Potentially Broken

**Bitcoin 2025 Annual Close: First Post-Halving Yearly Drop Sparks Four-Year Cycle Debate** Bitcoin closed 2025 below its year-start price—marking the first time in history it has ended a year lower following a halving—sparking intense market debate over whether its "four-year cycle" has ended. The latest halving occurred in April 2024. Prior to that, BTC hit an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, 2024, but has since seen a sharp pullback: it is currently down over 30% from that peak, resulting in a weak annual performance. Analysts note that after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin reached new highs in the subsequent year—a pattern not repeated in the current cycle. Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, bluntly stated the 2024 post-halving year’s price decline signals the "official death of the four-year cycle." Investor Armando Pantoja argues ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheet participation have shifted Bitcoin from retail sentiment-driven to macro factors: liquidity, interest rates, regulations, and geopolitics. Countering this, Markus Thielen, Research Director at 10x Research, said the cycle still exists but is no longer driven solely by "programmed supply reduction"—instead evolving into a new form. Market disagreement over Bitcoin’s long-term cycle structure continues to widen.