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glassnode: Bitcoin's short-term support is at $83.4k, spot and ETF demand recovery is key to stabilization

2026.01.29 11:57:49

On January 29, Glassnode released its weekly report noting that Bitcoin continues to consolidate around structurally critical on-chain levels, with a delicate balance between holder confidence and marginal demand. Short-term holders’ positions remain weak. As shown in the chart below, the lower bound of the current compression range (–1 standard deviation) sits at $83,400—this is a recent key support level, and a break below it could trigger further price retracement toward the true market value near $80,700. That said, the overall capital flow pattern has stabilized. ETF selling pressure has eased, and spot market positions are showing initial signs of improvement—particularly in offshore markets—indicating a reemergence of buyer interest. Meanwhile, the derivatives market remains restrained: neutral funding rates suggest low market leverage, minimizing price impact from speculative momentum. Options positioning adjustments reinforce this cautious stance. Skew has turned bearish, short-term protection pricing has risen, and traders’ gamma values have fallen below zero, increasing the likelihood of sharp price swings during periods of market volatility. Looking ahead, the market’s direction hinges on whether demand from spot and ETF channels can be sustained. Consistent positive capital inflows and stronger spot buying will support trend continuation, while ongoing fragility and rising downside hedging demand leave the market vulnerable to further consolidation or a deeper pullback.
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