Polymarket Predicts 78% Probability of "Bitcoin Falling to $65K by 2026"

On February 4, monitoring by HyperInsight (via https://t.me/HyperInsight) shows the "20 Million Band Hunter" address (0x880a...) closed out part of its ETH long position, reducing 155.17 ETH long contracts worth roughly $366,100. Following this move, the total value of its ETH long position fell to $1.0965 million. The position is currently in floating profit of ~$9,600, with a 10.51% return rate. Its average entry price rose from $2,257.91 to $2,259.63. This address has long focused on high-frequency multi-asset arbitrage trading, with an average holding period of ~20 hours. Since October 2023, starting with an initial principal of ~$20 million, it has accumulated nearly $100 million in realized profits.

**Feb 4 (Cointelegraph) — Nasdaq-listed insurance broker Tranquilidade announced Wednesday it has struck a strategic agreement with an undisclosed investor, who will contribute 15,000 Bitcoin (BTC) in exchange for equity. The firm is currently valued at ~$1.1 billion.** **The deal also includes a strategic collaboration focused on artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency, with plans to co-found an innovation lab to develop: - AI-driven trading and risk management tools - Blockchain infrastructure - Decentralized applications (dApps) - Products covering Layer 2 networks, decentralized finance (DeFi), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs)** **Per Bitget data, Tranquilidade’s (ticker: TIRX) share price closed at $0.15 Wednesday, marking a 98.41% jump. Its market cap stands at ~$7.48 million—well below the value implied by the proposed BTC deal.** **Should the transaction close, Tranquilidade (set to receive 15,000 BTC) would become the world’s eighth-largest publicly trad

Feb 4 — Per HyperInsight monitoring (via Telegram: https://t.me/HyperInsight), Taiwanese artist Huang Licheng (nicknamed “Brother Ma”) has deposited ~$13.16 million into crypto platform Hyperliquid since October last year, with no withdrawals in that period. His current account balance is just ~$60,000, and nearly every incoming fund has ended in a loss. His latest deposit (~$250,000) was made on Feb 2. He then opened and continuously added to leveraged long positions in ETH and HYPE, which triggered liquidation today. This marks an over $50.3 million drawdown from his account’s September peak of ~$50.39 million. Excluding a small withdrawal, most of the decline stems from reversed unrealized gains and liquidation losses. Huang, who previously profited from blue-chip NFTs, has been active on Hyperliquid since mid-2025. Since October 2025, he has faced successive massive liquidations, shrinking his total holdings from over $100 million to just tens of thousands of dollars now.

Binance Alpha will list Warden Protocol (WARD) on February 4, per an official announcement. Eligible users may claim the airdrop using Alpha Points by visiting the Alpha page once trading commences. Additional details will be released soon.

Feb. 4: On-chain governance tool Tally announced it will launch an ICO, with plans to publicly document the full process over the next 60 days. Additionally, Tally has built an ICO fundraising platform powered by Uniswap CCA (a Uniswap-linked contract or mechanism) to help teams of all sizes raise capital.

February 4th: Farside Investors data shows US Bitcoin spot ETFs posted a net outflow of $272 million yesterday, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $14 million.