Bitcoin Dips Reignite "Four-Year Cycle" Fears, Analysis Suggests Unlikely Return to 80% Plunge
Feb 4: K33 analysis noted Bitcoin has pulled back ~40% from its all-time high, echoing downswing phases of past four-year cycles and sparking market fears of a bear market replay. However, the firm believes the current downturn is structurally different from 2018 and 2022, with less chance of an ~80% peak-to-trough decline.
K33 research director Vetle Lunde noted that while recent market action echoes historical deep corrections, the current environment boasts stronger institutional participation, inflows into regulated products, a more accommodative rate environment, and no systemic deleveraging event like 2022’s.
He added some bottoming signs have emerged—including extreme pressure readings in spot volumes and derivatives markets—but they’re not enough to confirm a clear bottom. Lunde sees ~$74k as a key support level; if it breaks, prices could drop to $69k or even the $58k area near the 200-week moving average. Overall, K33 views the current price band as a potential accumula
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Vitalik proposes integrating a prediction market and a DAO into the creator token ecosystem, weakening the celebrity effect and strengthening intrinsic value
On February 4th, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said the current Creator Coin ecosystem overrewards fame and traffic—and could be improved by combining prediction markets with Creator DAOs.
He proposed setting up small Creator DAOs (max 200 members) focused on specific niches, where members vote anonymously to approve new creators, reject applicants, and remove existing ones. Additionally, he suggested adding prediction markets where participants can bet on which creators will get accepted by the DAO.
Vitalik argues this setup would turn speculation into “predictions about top-tier creators,” avoiding Creator Coin’s cycle of pure speculative trading. Using DAO revenue to buy back and burn tokens of accepted creators would boost the tokens’ value backing. He emphasized ultimate decision-making should lie with creators making actual high-quality content—not speculators.
The idea has sparked industry debate: some question the Creator Coin model outright, while others say the
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Ripple Prime Integrates Hyperledger, Enabling On-Chain Derivatives Trading
On February 4, Ripple integrated Hyperliquid—its decentralized derivatives protocol—into Ripple Prime, its institutional-grade brokerage platform, marking the platform’s first direct support for decentralized finance (DeFi).
With this integration, Ripple Prime clients can now efficiently manage Hyperliquid’s on-chain derivative positions, plus their risk exposure to centralized crypto markets and traditional assets like foreign exchange (FX) and fixed income, all within a single brokerage framework.
Ripple noted that institutional clients using Hyperliquid will only interact with Ripple Prime as their counterparty, with all positions managed under a unified risk and margin system. This step reflects growing institutional participation in the DeFi space, and Ripple Prime intends to expand support for both centralized and decentralized liquidity venues simultaneously going forward.
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Analysis: Bitcoin Key Trendline Sits at $68,000, Acting as Price 'Support'
On February 4, several traders noted that Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average (EMA/SMA)—a key long-term support level—around $68,000. This level could serve as a critical bottom zone in the current correction.
Analysts point out this marks the first time BTC has retested this long-term trendline since late 2023. Historical data shows Bitcoin often retraces to the 200-week moving average and forms a medium-term bottom after breaking below the 100-week moving average. Some traders expect the $68,000 level to be a key area to monitor if prices decline further; should it break, the next focus range may shift to $55,000–$58,000.
Despite a more than 40% pullback from its peak, market sentiment has not shown widespread capitulation. Institutional analysts note crypto market “winters” typically last around 14 months, and the current phase may be nearing its end. Meanwhile, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows of roughly $3.2 billion since mid-January—accountin
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