Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin Reaching $75K in February" Drops to 49%

**Wintermute Comment (Feb 10): Bitcoin Dips to $60k, Erases Trump-Era Gains** Bitcoin fell to $60,000 last week, wiping out all gains since the Trump election. Spot flows signal **significant structural pressure**: Coinbase’s premium has stayed in negative territory (persisting since December 2023), pointing to long-term U.S. selling pressure. Internal OTC data confirms U.S. counterparties were the dominant sellers last week—trend amplified by ongoing ETF redemptions. Over recent months, AI-linked assets have steadily absorbed market capital, crowding out other asset classes. The correlation is clear: crypto underperforms as AI stocks rise, and crypto losses are amplified—nearly all tied to capital rotating into AI. For crypto to regain outperformance, AI trading must cool first. Microsoft’s soft earnings report kickstarted this shift, but it’s far from sufficient. Last week’s market saw a **“surrender-style” liquidation**: volatility spiked, and buy orders emerged at $60k. Wi

On Feb 10, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said, "Binance users hold a larger share of stablecoins (including USDT, USDC, USD1, etc.) than users of any other centralized exchange."

CoinGlass reported on Feb. 10 that exchange data shows capital is flowing back, but leverage hasn’t rebounded in tandem. Binance has seen notable capital inflows and higher trading volume, yet its average leverage ratio remains muted. This isn’t a trending market—instead, it’s a post-deleveraging environment awaiting catalysts.

February 10 — Per GMGN monitoring data (link: https://gmgn.ai/base/token/i_m4TE56o8_0x22af33fe49fd1fa80c7149773dde5890d3c76f3b), BNKR, an AI Agent token on the Base ecosystem, saw a short-term price surge. Its market capitalization exceeded $120 million, hitting an all-time high. As of reporting, the token’s market cap stands at $121 million, with a price of approximately $0.0012 — marking a 30% increase over the past 24 hours. BlockBeats notes that meme coins carry significant trading volatility, often driven by market sentiment and hype rather than actual value or utility. Investors are advised to exercise caution regarding associated risks.

February 10: Changpeng Zhao (CZ) responded to the claim “Crypto exchanges should stop listing meme coins nonstop to make the industry appear more legitimate” in a post on X. He stated: “Listing all tokens is a positive for decentralized exchanges (DEXs), but doing the same for centralized exchanges (CEXs) is viewed negatively. Exchanges should offer access to all tokens. Some aren’t listed because every exchange has its own listing review framework—one that can also evolve over time.”

February 10 The U.S.—fresh off a 43-day federal shutdown last fall—faced another brief 4-day shutdown just a week ago. Now, another shutdown looms again, driven by ongoing partisan divides over potential reforms to the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policies. The Jan. 31-Feb. 3 shutdown ended after a bipartisan spending agreement that extended ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) funding for two weeks while negotiations continue. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) stopgap funding expires Friday, meaning a partial shutdown could start early Saturday local time. With no breakthrough in talks, Washington is bracing for another partial shutdown—this time only affecting DHS. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket put the odds of a U.S. shutdown this weekend at 65% and 74%, respectively. (Jinse)