Analyst: Strong NFP Data Dampens Rate Cut Odds in H1, but Complete Ruling Out Still Premature

February 11th — InvestingLive analyst Justin Low noted all eyes are on today’s U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, with market participants on edge for the release to guide their next moves. Traders are currently pricing in roughly 60 basis points of total Fed rate cuts this year, including a 25-bp reduction at the June meeting. Yesterday’s soft consumer data only reinforced those expectations. A stronger-than-expected NFP report today, paired with a stable unemployment rate, would signal the Fed could hold rates steady for longer. In a bullish outcome, that would sharply cut the odds of a first-half (H1) rate cut. Still, given mixed signals from yesterday’s U.S. consumer prints, it’s too soon to fully rule out additional rate cuts in June or July. — FXStreet