Analysis: US CPI Below Expectations, Bitcoin Rebounds to $69K, Rate Cut Expectations Still Low

February 13th: Bitcoin rallied short-term after U.S. January CPI data came in softer than expected, topping $69,000 and hitting a peak of $69,190—up roughly 4%. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed January core CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year (matching estimates), while headline CPI climbed 2.4% YoY—0.1 percentage points below forecasts and marking a multi-year trough. Cooling inflation lifted market sentiment, with crypto assets emerging as the day’s standout risk assets. Yet rate markets remain cautious on betting a Fed rate cut at its March meeting. CME FedWatch data puts the probability of a 25-basis-point March cut at less than 10%, signaling no clear easing expectations have formed. On charts, the $68,000-$69,000 range is a critical resistance zone—near the 2021 all-time high and aligning with the 200-week moving average. Some traders note holding above this zone could form a “higher-low” pattern, but overall sentiment remains guarded.