Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin Reaching $75K in February" Drops to 17%

As of February 21, Coinglass data reveals the top net fund flows in crypto spot markets over the past 24 hours: ### Top Net Outflows - BTC: $371M - ENSO: $16.96M - KITE: $11.46M - BIO: $9.96M - DOGE: $9.26M ### Top Net Inflows - USD1: $72.37M - ETH: $40M - TRX: $8.20M - BNB: $7.01M - BCH: $3.86M

On February 21, Onchain Lens monitoring data shows a 5-year dormant Bitcoin whale deposited 1,000 BTC (valued at ~$67.64 million) to Bitfinex, netting an approximate profit of $38.35 million. The address originally spent ~$29.28 million to withdraw this batch of BTC from Bitstamp and FTX.

February 21 — Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced in an X post that the exchange holds custody of over 80% of all U.S.-listed BTC and ETH ETF assets, and saw a peak of $31 billion in net inflows for those ETFs in 2025. Coinbase currently partners with dozens of ETF providers, including major financial institutions and government entities. It routinely conducts penetration tests with leading cryptographers, holds numerous relevant technical patents, and undergoes ongoing security audits.

On February 21, cryptocurrency analyst Micha?l van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin’s recent pullback has pushed realized losses to an all-time high—one of the largest such events in the asset’s history, on par with the 2018 bear market crash, March 2020 COVID-19 plunge, and 2022 losses tied to the Luna/FTX collapse. A wave of holders is engaging in capitulation selling: either panic-selling BTC or transferring it while underwater. This extreme surge in realized losses typically signals panic selling and forced liquidations. Historically, sharp spikes in realized losses have often coincided with near or interim market bottoms, as they mark the exit of “weak hands” and highly leveraged positions. Notably, the Sharpe Ratio has fallen to its lowest level since the last market bottom; the market is in the midst of a massive capitulation event with record-high realized losses; and sentiment is near rock bottom. The only exception this cycle? Bitcoin has dropped just ~50% from its all-time

**IoTeX Updates on Asset Theft Incident (February 21)** IoTeX announced on February 21 that it is evaluating and actively managing its recent asset theft incident, with initial estimated losses far lower than the amounts rumored. The team has coordinated with major exchanges and security partners to trace and freeze the hacker’s assets, and the situation is currently under control. Continuous monitoring will continue, and the community will receive timely updates on the latest developments.