Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Outperformed Gold and the Nasdaq Since the US-Iran War

March 12th: Per Coinglass data, Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed positive for two straight days, now at 0.0231%. Five of the past 10 days have seen positive premiums, with U.S. market buying sentiment beginning to rebound following 40 straight days of negative premiums. BlockBeats Note: Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index measures the gap between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase (a top U.S. exchange) and the global average price. It’s a key gauge for tracking U.S. capital inflows, institutional investment interest, and shifts in market sentiment. A positive premium means Coinbase’s Bitcoin price is above the global average, typically signaling: strong U.S. buying pressure, active inflows of institutional or compliant funds, ample USD liquidity, and mostly optimistic investor sentiment. A negative premium means Coinbase’s Bitcoin price is below the global average, typically reflecting: heavy U.S. selling pressure, waning investor risk appetite, increased market risk aversion

March 12th — Ark Labs has closed a $5.2 million seed funding round to scale infrastructure for programmable finance applications on Bitcoin (BTC), per The Block. Investors in the round include Tether, Ego Death Capital, Epoch VC, Lion26, Sats Ventures, Contribution Capital, Anchorage Digital, former PayPal CFO Ralph Ho, and other digital asset and fintech backers. Ark Labs did not disclose the round’s structure, timeline (open/close dates), or post-money valuation. Founded in 2024, Ark Labs now has over $7.7 million in total institutional support, with prior seed funding backed by Draper Associates, Fulgur Ventures, and Axiom Capital.

On March 12th, per HyperInsight monitoring, a whale address starting with 0x049 opened simultaneous short positions on ETH and BTC within the past hour on Hyperliquid, with a total position size exceeding $60 million. The ETH short position was opened with 20x leverage, totaling 14,564.35 ETH (~$30.1 million) at an average entry price of $2,059.82. It currently has an unrealized loss of ~$120,000 (-8%), with a liquidation price of $2,120. Concurrently, the same address opened an equivalent-sized BTC short position: 426.35 BTC (~$30.06 million) at an average entry price of $70,363. It holds an unrealized loss of $48,000 (-4%), with a liquidation price of $72,956.

**March 12 (Tuesday) – Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Mike Selig announced key steps Tuesday to bring clarity to prediction markets.** In a formal statement, Selig said: *“Today, we’ve issued clear guidance for prediction markets to help trading platforms understand CFTC expectations when listing new contracts. We’re taking responsibility to ensure this asset class operates under transparent rules.”* In a subsequent CNBC interview, he expanded: *“Prediction markets are evolving rapidly, which is why we’re acting now to provide this guidance. Trading platforms self-certify contracts and maintain their own rulebooks—they need a clear sense of our requirements, so we’re publishing these guidelines in plain written form for them to follow.”* Selig added the CFTC will release a pre-rulemaking notice later Tuesday: *“Our goal is to establish clear conduct rules for this new asset class and market. Preventing manipulation, insider trading, and other abuses in th

On March 12, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced via social media that he plans to deliver his first statement, which will cover seven sections: the martyrdom of the revolutionary leader, the people’s roles and responsibilities, the armed forces, the executive branch, the resistance front, regional countries, and how to engage with the enemy. (Xinhua International)

U.S. initial jobless claims declined last week, signaling limited corporate layoffs, the Labor Department reported Thursday. For the week ended March 7, claims totaled 213,000—down from 214,000 the prior week and below the 215,000 consensus forecast. Continuing claims (for the week ended Feb. 28) dropped to 1.85 million, from 1.87 million the previous week. The latest data follows the Labor Department’s weaker-than-expected February jobs report last week, which showed a 92,000 job decline—after a 126,000 gain in January. Still, the modest claims figures suggest companies are prioritizing retaining workers over large-scale layoffs.