Analysis: Bitcoin Buyer Interest Returning, Break Above $78,000 Needed to Reverse Downtrend

Per a Cointelegraph report, CryptoQuant data shows that as demand for Bitcoin derivatives rebounds, Bitcoin’s net buy volume signals buyers are entering the market. Net buy volume measures the power imbalance between active buyers and sellers in the derivatives market—and this indicator has stayed positive since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted. This positive trend aligns with Bitcoin’s recent spike to $74,000, pointing to renewed derivatives market demand. Coinbureau CEO Nic noted: “This means buyers’ volume has outpaced sellers’—buyers are in control of the market.” TradingView data shows Bitcoin has consolidated in the $62k-$72k range for over four weeks, with multiple failed attempts to break $70k. On a macro level, BTC’s price remains caught between its realized price (the $54,400 average cost of all circulating supply) and its true market price (the $78k cost basis for actively traded coins). Glassnode noted: “Absent broader macro headwinds, this range could support a bear market relief rally—its upper bound constrained by the true market price.” Charts show BTC spent most of 2023 between these two levels, with relief rallies repeatedly blocked near the true market price. Ultimately, BTC broke through in October 2023 on news of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF approvals. Crypto trader and analyst Titan said a BTC break above the $78k-$80k range could signal a shift in the long-term trend.