Wintermute: Watch Key Resistance Levels at $74,000 and $80,000 Bitcoin

March 17th, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute released a market analysis noting the Middle East conflict has entered its third week of escalation: Brent crude prices jumped 26% that week, while markets revised 2026 rate-cut expectations down to just one cut. Against this backdrop, crypto outperformed all major asset classes except oil—BTC rose for the week, while stocks, bonds, and gold all posted declines. On the macro front, annualized core PCE hit 3.1%, non-farm payrolls fell by 92k, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%—stagflation is now the baseline scenario. This week, the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), and Bank of England (BOE) will all announce interest rate decisions on the same day, marking the most concentrated macro event in recent months. Wintermute said current conditions are more favorable than they’ve been in months. **Coinbase’s premium reset, ETF inflows, and institutional trading flows all align.** Still, caution remains warranted. **For Bitcoin, $74k and $80k are key resistance levels to watch.** Cycle analogies matter too: historically, it takes ~400 days from peak to trough—and we’re currently at less than 200 days. Structural factors (stablecoin proliferation, RWAs, maturing institutional infrastructure, and no fundamental red flags) mean **this bear market will be shallower than prior cycles.** That said, realistic expectations for the speed of recovery are still a must.