Analysis: Pressure on Risk Assets such as Bitcoin Due to Rising Oil Prices and Fed Pause on Rate Cuts

**Crypto Market Under Pressure Amid Macro Headwinds (March 19)** CoinDesk reports Bitcoin fell to ~$70,000, Ethereum dropped to $2,160, and the broader crypto market faced downward pressure Wednesday. Two key macro bearish factors overlapped: 1. **Fed Policy**: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, keeping the federal funds rate range at 3.50%-3.75% and pausing its rate-cut cycle. This pushed the U.S. dollar higher and weighed on risk assets. 2. **Geopolitical Tensions**: After Israel targeted Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, Iran struck key Gulf energy infrastructure. Brent crude rose to $114, Oman crude hit $150, and European natural gas futures surged ~25% to over $78/MWh Thursday. ### Derivatives Data - Crypto exchanges liquidated nearly $600 million in leveraged positions over 24 hours, with long positions dominating—signaling the overnight drop caught bullish traders off guard. - Total futures open interest (OI) fell 5.6% to $106.9 billion; Ethereum futures OI dropped 9%. - Funding rates for BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL turned negative, indicating rising short demand. - Bitcoin’s 30-day Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) rose 5%+ to 58.36%, breaking its prior week’s downtrend. - Bearish options skew for BTC/ETH strengthened on Deribit as downside concerns mounted.