QCP: Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Risk Assets, Bitcoin Exhibits "Resilience" and May Transition to a Non-Traditional Risk Asset Position

March 24th: QCP’s latest market note noted that while Trump’s final ultimatum on Iran didn’t unfold as anticipated—alongside ongoing Middle East tensions—the market briefly priced in higher geopolitical risks. But after the U.S. held off on action and signaled “dialogue progress,” risk assets stabilized for the time being. The crypto market showed resilience: Bitcoin briefly dipped below $70k over the weekend, but its overall drop was far milder than in past “risk-off” phases, with no obvious liquidity-fueled selloff. Analysts say this could tie to lower market leverage, suggesting Bitcoin is gradually moving beyond being just a “high-beta risk asset.” On the macro front, U.S. debt has topped $39 trillion. With potential fiscal expansion on the horizon, early stagflation signs, and constrained central bank policy room, some market players are rethinking Bitcoin as a “neutral value export.” Geopolitics have reinforced this narrative further. Iran has floated settling transactions in yuan in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, outlining a potential alternative settlement route. While this hasn’t materialized yet, it’s sparked debate about alternatives to the dollar-dominated system. Analysts note that if tensions persist, Bitcoin’s “permissionless settlement” narrative could recapture market focus.