Analyst: Bitcoin Parabolic Rally Era May Be Over, Market Maturing

According to Bitget's market data, spot silver has fallen below $62 per ounce for the first time since August 7, with an intraday drop of 3.60%.

Whales are starting to dump $HYPE! 0xc745 deposited 177,518 $HYPE ($16.08M) into #OKX and #Bybit an hour ago. A wallet linked to Hypersphere Ventures sold 62,869 $HYPE ($5.78M) bought a month ago, making a $2.13M profit!

On-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa) has monitored that a whale holding VVV for over a year has pocketed $7.889 million in profits. The wallet address 0x6Dc…3EAB3 purchased 673,958 VVV tokens on-chain between April and August 2025 at an average entry price of $3.77, costing a total of $2.544 million. The whale offloaded some of its tokens a year ago, while the remaining holdings were gradually transferred to trading platforms over the past three months amid an upward price trend, with full liquidation completed 8 hours ago. At an average exit price of $20.85, the return on investment would exceed 453%.

Official announcement from Paid: X Money payments have been suspended, and the team is addressing related payment issues. Existing balances remain secure, and fees will continue to accrue. Before full payment services are restored, an online application platform will soon be launched as a temporary solution; the team has pledged to resume normal payment functionality as quickly as possible. Paid’s recently launched permissionless token fee split feature for X Money accounts has sparked heated community discussion. The official stated that 80% of fees will be sent to X users via X Money, while 20% will be converted to SOL for PAID token buybacks. Creators can send fees via X Money by adding an X Handle to their project’s text description. Celebrities on X do not even need to register for Paid or provide consent to receive fee distributions through X Money. Some celebrities have even joked that their X Money accounts are experiencing DDoS attacks due to the frequent notifications of incoming fee splits.

According to BIT (bit.com) market data, the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed to 17 basis points last week, the narrowest level since early 2025. Currently, the 2-year and 10-year yields stand at around 4.9% and 5.2% respectively. The 10-year yield remains near its highest level since 2007, but as markets expect the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates, short-term yields are rising faster, pushing the spread closer to inversion. Markets are now pricing in at least three 25-basis-point rate hikes from the Fed over the next year. Earlier, the rise in long-term yields mainly reflected economic resilience, inflationary pressures, and fiscal risks. However, after the Fed implemented its first rate hike in three years in September, markets have begun to focus more on whether policy rates are already high enough to curb future growth. Historical statistics show that since the 1960s, yield curve inversions have preceded 8 U.S. recessions, with the average inversion of the 2-year/10-year spread occurring about 15 months before a recession, ranging from 6 months to two years. Notably, the 2022 inversion did not lead to a recession. The flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has spilled over to bank stocks: the KBW Bank Index entered a technical correction zone last week, down 10% from its recent high. Zach Griffiths, head of strategy at CreditSights, said that if the curve inverts further or flattens significantly, it will weaken the market’s view that “the U.S. economy is very strong”. Gennadiy Goldberg of TD Securities believes markets have already priced in a considerable number of rate hike expectations, leaving limited room for short-term yields to continue outperforming long-term ones sharply, and the curve may steepen again in the future. The 17-basis-point spread more directly reflects the market’s repricing of policy-tightening risks rather than a foregone conclusion of a recession.

According to Bitget market data, renewed selling of US Treasuries, sparked by rising oil prices after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal, has caused spot gold and silver to decline. Spot gold is trading at $4,215 per ounce, down 1.65% in 24 hours; spot silver stands at $62.44 per ounce, down nearly 3% over the same period.