44% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently in a state of unrealized losses, with hodlers facing nearly $600 billion in unrealized losses

April 2nd — Bitcoin trades at $66,450 as of press time, 47% below its $126,000 all-time high set in October 2025, leaving HODLers facing steep unrealized losses. Per Glassnode data, ~8.8 million BTC are currently in a loss position, translating to ~$598.7 billion in unrealized losses—over 44% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. The firm notes this loss scale is structurally similar to Q2 2022: “Historically, resolving this level of supply excess requires loss-making holders to shift BTC to new buyers entering at lower prices.” Long-term holders (holding >155 days) are realizing $200 million in losses daily—Glassnode calls this “confirmation of active stop-loss selling.” A meaningful drop below $25 million/day would signal selling pressure exhaustion, a historical prerequisite for a bottom preceding a bull market transition, the firm adds. Bitcoin’s spot price also sits below the $83,408 average cost basis for U.S. spot ETF holders, ramping up pressure on these investors. As of the week ended March 27, global Bitcoin investment product net outflows exceeded $194 million. On the demand front: Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin on-chain demand index hit -1,623 BTC on Thursday, indicating a seller-dominated market. CryptoQuant says the demand contraction persisting since late November 2025 “confirms the broader market remains in the distribution phase.” The Coinbase Premium Index is still negative: “U.S. investors have yet to re-enter the market in large scale.”