QCP: Bitcoin Sees Cautious Rebound, Volatility Risk Persists

On April 8th, QCP issued a market note noting that Bitcoin rebounded above $71,000, driven by the two-week conditional ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran—but the truce has yet to deliver a lasting resolution. Options markets signal this rally is more event-driven than fundamental, with front-end BTC implied volatility falling while skew widens and demand for downside put options remains strong. The term structure stays in contango, indicating markets haven’t abandoned hedging. QCP adds current market caution is warranted: A recent attack on Saudi energy infrastructure underscores turmoil risks persist even as shipping resumes. Macro conditions remain complex: U.S. employment data has rebounded, but key labor metrics are weakening—leaving the Fed to balance slowing growth and resurgent energy-fueled inflation. This week’s CPI will be the next critical test.