Wintermute: Ceasefire Transaction Is Dead, Market Resumes Upgrade Trend, Strait Confirmation Reopening Could Propel Bitcoin Above $75,000

A senior official from the Department of North American and Oceanian Affairs of China’s Ministry of Commerce interpreted the outcomes of the 8th round of China-US economic and trade consultations. During the round, both sides agreed that under the framework of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as the respective leads of China and the US, will launch an artificial intelligence (AI) dialogue, and held its first session to exchange views on the risks and benefits of AI. The two sides agreed to hold the next dialogue before the end of November this year, and also reached an agreement to establish a communication channel for AI-related incidents.

Another whale just transferred out 4,500 $BTC ($378.79M) after more than 4 years of inactivity.

The highlight of this week’s macroeconomic data is undoubtedly the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. The report includes three core figures—nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings—and is directly tied to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, making it a highly significant employment data point ahead of the October policy meeting. Below are the key market focuses for the coming week (all times Beijing Time): - Wednesday 20:15: U.S. September ADP employment change - Wednesday 20:30: U.S. August core PCE price index year-over-year rate - Thursday 16:00: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivers a speech - Thursday 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended September 26 - Thursday 21:30: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivers a speech - Friday 20:30: U.S. September seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate Starting from Wednesday early morning, Federal Reserve officials will hold a flurry of public events. 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will deliver speeches in succession. Permanent FOMC voting member and New York Fed President John Williams will give a keynote speech at the University at Buffalo. On Thursday, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak one after another; on Friday, Williams and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will also hold public events. In U.S. equities: Micron Technology (MU.O) will release its earnings report after Wednesday’s market close; on Thursday, Nike (NKE.N) will announce its latest quarterly results. The two companies track two key themes: memory chips and consumer demand respectively.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $84,000, with a 0.32% decline in the past 24 hours.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, a crypto whale that had been inactive for over four years transferred out 4,500 Bitcoin valued at $378.79 million.

According to Token Unlocks data, tokens including SUI, EIGEN, and ENA will see major unlocks this week, with UTC+8 times as follows: Falcon Finance (FF) will unlock approximately 77.14 million tokens at 9 PM on September 29, representing 2.51% of its circulating supply and valued at around $10.2 million; Collector Crypt (CARDS) will unlock about 59.26 million tokens at 3 AM on September 30, accounting for 10.62% of its circulating supply and worth roughly $10.7 million; Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens at 8 PM on September 30, making up 2.81% of its circulating supply and valued at about $10.8 million; Sui (SUI) will unlock around 13.26 million tokens at 8 AM on October 1, equivalent to 0.32% of its circulating supply and worth roughly $16.7 million; EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 36.82 million tokens at 12 PM on October 1, representing 5.19% of its circulating supply and valued at around $10.3 million; Ethena (ENA) will unlock about 40.63 million tokens at 3 PM on October 2, accounting for 0.45% of its circulating supply and worth roughly $11 million; DoubleZero (2Z) will unlock approximately 1.66 billion tokens at 9 PM on October 2, making up 47.69% of its circulating supply and valued at around $114 million.