Analyst: "Asserting that Bitcoin's new bull run has started is still 'premature'"

April 17 (Cointelegraph) — Bitcoin briefly topped $76k during Wednesday’s trading, but Glassnode analysts say on-chain data shows it’s too early to call a new bull market. Glassnode’s CryptoViz.art measured active Bitcoin investors’ average holding cost via the “True Market Mean” (TMM). Since BTC fell below the TMM on Jan. 31, it’s stayed under the metric for 75 days. Active holders face average unrealized losses—peaking at 20% and now sitting ~5% below that high-water mark. The TMM currently sits at $78,013; reclaiming this level is key for active investors to return to profitability. CryptoViz.art cited 10 similar TMM break-below instances since 2016, with durations spanning 2 days to over 11 months. The deepest drawdowns hit 57% during the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 cycles. “75 days is still early,” he noted. “In 2018 and 2022 cycles, bottoms didn’t form until months 5-9. This isn’t a ‘safe signal’—close monitoring is needed.” On capital flows, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlighted: - The 365-day market cap-to-realized cap growth rate has been negative for 105 straight trading days (latest: -0.000652), meaning the market hasn’t drawn enough new capital to fuel price gains. - The 30-day realized cap change has been weak: Only 7 net inflow days in 2024 (all mid-January). Since Jan. 23, it’s stayed negative, though it’s improved from an early-April low of ~-0.54% to -0.32%. - Year-to-date, realized cap has fallen from $1.12T to $1.08T (-3.23%). Adler Jr. said recent improvements only signal slower outflows, not a bullish reversal. Both indicators need to turn positive simultaneously and consistently to confirm a trend shift.