Hyperliquid launches the first HIP-4 binary market prediction contract, directly competing with the leading prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi

May 2 — Hyperliquid has launched its first HIP-4 binary prediction market contract, posing the question: “Will Bitcoin’s price be above $78,213 at 2:00 PM ET on May 3?” Against a landscape where Polymarket leads on-chain prediction market traffic and Kalshi partners with Coinbase to target compliant markets, Hyperliquid’s entry isn’t a simple “follow-the-trend” play. Instead, it’s leaning on its native underlying performance edge to rewrite the prediction market playbook, directly competing with top players Polymarket and Kalshi. Late last month, Hyperliquid rolled out its “Outcome Tokens” fee schedule to prep for the prediction market’s mainnet launch. Contracts are free to open, with fees only applied at close or settlement. Traders using the platform’s “quote-aligning tokens” get extra perks: 20% lower maker fees and 50% higher taker rebates. The full fee formula is open to developers. Built on the HIP-4 upgrade, Outcome Tokens let users trade binary real-world event contracts in the same account as Hyperliquid’s existing perpetuals and spot positions.