Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin Reaching $100,000 This Year" Rises to 49%
On May 10, as Bitcoin climbed above $80,000, the probability of it rebounding to $100,000 this year on Polymarket rose to 49%—up from 30% on April 5. Additionally, the odds of BTC hitting $90,000 within the year now stand at 71%, while the chance of it falling to $50,000 is 36%.
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Opinion: S&P 500 Still Has Upside Potential, But Downside Hedging Is Advised Now
**May 10**
Sonali Basak, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, told CNBC in an interview that the market still has room to climb, with the S&P 500 trading in a fair range of 7,500 to 7,800 points—though she emphasized the current phase calls for enhanced downside hedging.
Corporate earnings continue to grow, but there’s limited room for further multiple expansion, and the market faces elevated uncertainty in the second half of the year. Liquidity tailwinds that previously supported the rally are fading, including AI capital expenditures, large IPOs, government financing needs, and private credit competition—all of which could pressure the market.
The market’s tolerance range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is roughly 4% to 4.5%, Basak noted. A rise to 4.8% would push it into a “danger zone,” where volatility and drawdown risks could spike sharply. She added bonds and commodities in the traditional 60/40 asset allocation haven’t effectively hedged risks, driving more inve
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Michael Saylor reiterates Bitcoin Tracker Update, Hinting at Further BTC Accumulation
On May 10th, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor released new information related to its Bitcoin Tracker.
Per past practice, the company typically discloses details of its Bitcoin accumulation on the day following such an announcement.
### Notes on American English adjustments:
1. **Institutional clarity**: Used "MicroStrategy" (the full name of Saylor’s firm, standard in U.S. business context) instead of vague "Strategy."
2. **Natural phrasing**:
- "Per past practice" (common in U.S. news) replaces "According to the previous pattern."
- "Typically discloses" (more accurate than absolute "always") reflects real-world corporate behavior.
- "Details of its Bitcoin accumulation" (concise) replaces the redundant "Bitcoin accumulation information."
3. **Tone**: Casual yet professional, matching U.S. financial news brevity (removed HTML line breaks, streamlined for readability).
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VanEck Executive: Bitcoin Could Return to All-Time High in the Next 12 Months
**May 10: VanEck’s Sigel Forecasts Bitcoin Retesting ATH in 12 Months**
VanEck Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel told CNBC Wednesday (May 10) he expects Bitcoin to retest its all-time high within the next 12 months.
Citing BTC’s near 5-year high correlation with the Nasdaq, he noted the U.S. stock market’s resilience is fueling the current rebound. However, derivatives markets show little significant optimism—futures and options activity mostly reflects short covering and hedging demand, leaving room for downside potential from a contrarian perspective.
Sigel also highlighted a central bank’s 2024 announcement that it will add Bitcoin to its foreign exchange reserves, framing this as a sign BTC is gradually evolving into a global asset for large-scale cross-border settlements (a “major trend,” he emphasized).
On investment outlooks:
- Optimistic about Bitcoin’s rising market dominance;
- Mining firms are key beneficiaries of AI infrastructure integration—gro
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If Bitcoin surpasses $82,000, the mainstream CEX cumulative short liquidation pressure will reach $464 million
May 10th, Coinglass data shows:
- If Bitcoin rises above $82,000, cumulative short liquidation across major CEXs will hit $4.64 billion.
- Conversely, a drop below $79,000 would trigger $5.85 billion in cumulative long liquidation on major CEXs.
BlockBeats Note: Liquidation charts do not display the exact number or value of contracts being liquidated. Instead, the bars represent the **strength** of each liquidation cluster relative to neighboring clusters (i.e., how significant that cluster is).
This means the chart indicates how strongly the price will react when hitting a given level: higher bars signal a more intense price response due to a surge in liquidity.
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The Fed Expects Inflation to Heat Up in April, with BTC Facing the Risk of Falling to $70,000
May 10 — Bitcoin could face weaker support next week as the U.S. releases its inflation report, raising the risk of a pullback to $70,000.
The Cleveland Fed’s latest real-time inflation forecast projects April’s year-over-year CPI will rise to 3.56% — up from March’s 3.3% — while the monthly CPI is seen at 0.45% (down from 0.9%). Core CPI is forecast to hit 2.56% year-over-year and 0.21% month-over-month, compared to prior readings of 2.6% and 0.2%. The official April CPI report drops May 12.
This keeps the inflation picture messy: while monthly inflation slowed and core inflation held steady, overall CPI is still expected to reaccelerate — not a great environment for risk assets. A stronger annual CPI reading could reinforce the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates quickly, often weighing on speculative trades like Bitcoin. But Bitcoin has dodged deeper retracements after hot CPI prints before: after March’s CPI showed overall inflation jumping from 2.4% in February to 3.3%, BTC rose m
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