Analyst: Bitcoin's current price surge is a rebound from a major correction, not the start of a new bull market

May 10th — CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr says he remains cautious on Bitcoin’s recent price action, framing the current uptick as a corrective rebound after a sharp drop rather than the confirmed start of a new bull market. Adler noted Bitcoin’s recovery from $125,000 to $60,000 but emphasized key on-chain metrics haven’t hit levels seen at historical bear market bottoms. For example, long-term holder (LTH) holdings haven’t shown the typical accumulation pattern tied to market bottoms, and the market hasn’t undergone a full-scale spot sell-off or panic capitulation phase. On the macro front, Adler pointed to mounting pressures: the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to a historic low of 48.2, Brent crude hovers near $100 (fueling inflation fears), and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed above 4.5% — pressuring risk assets. He added the current rate market no longer bets on a swift Fed rate cut, and is even pricing in the chance of future hikes. Against this backdrop, Adler argues Bitcoin still lacks enough on-chain confirmation, stable spot demand, and supply-side pressure relief — so he’s keeping his cautious stance.