CME FedWatch: Fed Rate Hike Probability for the Year Exceeds 67%
May 24 market update: Data from CME’s FedWatch Tool puts the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold through December at 32.1%. The odds of cumulative rate hikes by December break down as follows: 42.5% for a total 25 basis point increase, 20.6% for 50 basis points, 4.4% for 75 basis points, and 0.4% for a full 100 basis point cumulative hike.
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Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index Drops to 25, Entering "Extreme Fear" Again
On May 24th, Alternative Data reports that today’s cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index fell to 25—down from yesterday’s reading of 28—slipping back into the “extreme fear” zone. The index’s average over the past week currently stands at 27.
For context: The Fear & Greed Index operates on a 0-to-100 scale, calculated using six weighted metrics: Volatility (25%), Market Volume (25%), Social Media Hype (15%), Market Surveys (15%), Bitcoin’s Dominance (10%), and Google Trends Analysis (10%).
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A certain whale bought 304,000 HYPE tokens at an average price of $53.7, currently boasting an unrealized gain of $2.97 million.
On May 24, on-chain analytics firm Yujin Monitoring reported that a crypto whale recently transferred 19 million USDC to the Hyperliquid exchange to buy HYPE ahead of the token’s breakout to a new all-time high. The whale has since converted 16.26 million USDC into 30.4k HYPE tokens, at an average purchase price of $53.7 per HYPE. With HYPE surging to $63.5 to hit a new peak, the whale’s “buy the dip” strategy has generated $2.97 million in unrealized gains.
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US-Iran Conflict Raises Inflation Expectations and US Bond Yields, Potentially Adding Billions of Dollars to US Debt Interest Payments
May 24. According to the Financial Times, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation expectations, which has sent U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2007—potentially leaving American taxpayers on the hook for billions in extra interest costs. Data shows the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield now stands at 4.58%, above the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) earlier baseline projection of 4.13%; the 30-year U.S. bond yield has also hit a new 2007-era high.
If current yield levels hold through the end of this fiscal year, U.S. federal interest payments will rise by an extra $8 billion. Should they persist across the entire 2027 fiscal year, that additional interest cost would exceed $30 billion. Market participants worry that climbing oil prices and widening budget deficits will further stoke inflation and amplify U.S. bond sell-offs. Some Wall Street investors contend the Federal Reserve is not doing enough to address inflation risks, sig
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Multiple CFTC Officials Questioning Prediction Market Platform Placed on Leave
On May 24, several senior officials from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — who had previously raised concerns about prediction market platforms — were suspended pending an investigation and ultimately forced to resign. The officials had voiced regulatory worries over three entities: Polymarket, Crypto.com, and a Gemini affiliate. Specifically, they questioned whether Crypto.com treated small-scale users fairly, whether Polymarket had sufficient anti-fraud measures in place, and whether the Gemini affiliate had obtained all required regulatory approvals.
Sources familiar with the matter say then-acting CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham and her senior advisors intervened to help those companies advance their approval processes and business needs. The report also notes a notable gap in the CFTC’s cryptocurrency enforcement efforts across administrations: during the Trump era, the agency took only two crypto-related enforcement actions, both targeting individuals rather tha
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