Analyst: Bitcoin is Near ‘Capitulation,’ Watching for Funds to Flow Back

May 29 – Per data from Greeks.live, a total of 84,000 Bitcoin (BTC) options expired today, with a put/call ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point (MPP) of $75,000, and a notional value of $6.2 billion. Additionally, 639,000 Ethereum (ETH) options also expired today, carrying a put/call ratio of 0.81, an MPP of $2,200, and a notional value of $12.8 billion. Analyst Adam from Greeks.live noted that Bitcoin slid quickly below $75,000 this week, coinciding with large expirations for both BTC and ETH. However, the sharp drop meant the market failed to get expected support from the maximum pain point, further dampening already weak sentiment. Only 20% of this month’s options are expiring, while open interest concentration for June has jumped to 40%. Bulls couldn’t reclaim key levels ahead of expiry, and BTC’s Gamma Exposure (GEX) price struggled to hold. This week, risk appetite kept falling, putting more pressure on altcoins and ETH’s beta. Without new catalysts, short-term implied volatility (IV) is very likely to drop post-expiry. Looking at major options data, the put/call ratios for BTC and ETH are 0.88 and 0.81 respectively—hardly extremely bearish. Earlier, there was no widespread betting on a one-sided crash; instead, it leaned toward a slightly defensive neutral stance. Skew volatility remained low, mostly driven by profit-taking from prior positions. While IV for longer-dated options edged up slightly, overall IV still sits below 35%, near all-time lows. The market’s next key watch points: whether capital flows back, and whether BTC can reclaim $75,000 and ETH can retake $2,100. This expiry looks more like a “bearish realization”: large expirations came to pass, but BTC and ETH are both trading below their maximum pain points, indicating this week’s dominant move wasn’t chasing upside—it was risk aversion and bulls stepping back, leaving the market’s bull side very fragile.