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Analysis: De-escalation of US-Iran Tensions Boosts Bitcoin Rebound, Market Reversal Still Awaits ETF Inflows and Buying Interest Confirmation

2026.06.13 14:01:56

June 13 Bitcoin Update: BTC plunged from nearly $73,000 to under $60,000 before bouncing back to around $63,500. At this level, it’s down roughly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of ~$126,000. While this pullback has pushed Bitcoin into the valuation band typically linked to bear market bottoms, there’s been none of the panic selling that usually signals a definitive market bottom. One key catalyst for the recent drop? A noticeable shift in Michael Saylor’s Strategy. The firm disclosed on June 1 that it sold 32 BTC for about $2.5 million to cover preferred stock dividends. Though that sum is tiny compared to its roughly 845,000 BTC holdings, the market framed it as a major departure—Saylor has long clung to his mantra of “never selling Bitcoin.” Strategy may be testing a new approach to using BTC as a corporate treasury asset by offloading small amounts, rather than just holding long-term. Earlier Iran tensions added extra pressure, lifting oil prices and amplifying fears of sustained high interest rates, which turned BTC into more of a high-beta Nasdaq proxy asset for a stretch. Then macro tailwinds sparked the rebound: Trump claimed the U.S. had effectively ended its war with Iran, officials flagged progress on a potential deal, Brent crude slid to around $85, U.S. stocks rallied, and SpaceX went public on the Nasdaq Friday, closing at $161—19% above its $135 IPO price, a big boost to overall risk appetite. Bitcoin’s 4.7% weekly gain masks more volatility than it looks: it dipped into what long-term valuation models peg as undervalued territory, stabilized without a forced liquidation spiral, and bounced on improved macro news. Still, a full market reversal isn’t here yet. It will need a return of demand: steady ETF fund flows, buyers stepping back in, and enough liquidations of losing positions to clear weak hands.
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Strive’s CEO, following in Michael Saylor’s footsteps, hinted in a post that he may add to his Bitcoin holdings next week.

Matt Cole, CEO of Bitcoin treasury firm Strive, posted the message “Turn amplification up some more,” hinting that the company will increase its Bitcoin holdings next week. The move follows the practice of Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury company. Both firms have a pattern of posting hints about Bitcoin purchases on Sundays, then announcing the exact size of the holdings addition on the following Monday. Earlier on September 21, Strive’s Cole disclosed that the firm bought 1,355 BTC for $107.7 million, at an average cost of $79,475 per coin, bringing its total BTC holdings to 26,355.

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According to Axios, one day after rejecting Iran’s proposal to end the war, U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects U.S. negotiators to hold more talks with Iran this week. Qatar and other regional mediators are attempting to restart U.S.-Iran negotiations, but the two sides have major differences on key issues. While Iran wants to focus talks on the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. maritime blockades, the Trump administration is demanding Iran make concessions on the nuclear issue. Two regional sources confirmed Trump’s remarks about more talks this week. They anticipate a new round of indirect dialogue between the U.S. and Iran as early as Monday, though it remains unclear whether the two sides can bridge their gaps. Trump stated: “I expect we will have more talks with Iran this week. They want to reach an agreement, but that’s not the agreement I want to make. That’s probably an agreement we would have agreed to a year ago. They misjudged the situation and are asking too much.”

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Analysis: U.S. Treasury yields have surged to near 20-year highs, yet U.S. stocks have remained resilient amid headwinds, with AI serving as a key pillar of support.

Despite the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbing to a nearly 20-year high, U.S. stocks have remained resilient, with the S&P 500 index seeing no notable impact. This divergence has prompted investors to re-examine the historical relationship between surging bond yields and stock market performance. Historical experience shows that rising yields do not necessarily trigger stock market declines. In 1994, the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes triggered a bond market sell-off, pushing the S&P 500 down roughly 8% at one point, before the index clawed back losses as the economy and corporate earnings held up. In 2016, markets viewed rising yields as a sign of economic recovery and policy normalization, leading U.S. stocks to rise in tandem with Treasury yields. By contrast, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes in 2022 weighed on both bond and stock markets, resulting in a sharp drop for the S&P 500. In 2026, U.S. stocks are facing a similar scenario of rising yields paired with resilient economic growth. Large-scale investments in AI infrastructure by tech firms are supporting the economy and stock market, while a U.S.-Iran deal that could push oil prices lower may also ease inflationary pressures. However, bearish views argue that the Fed may need to keep raising rates until stocks and broader financial conditions are sufficiently tightened. Bank of America interest rate strategist Meghan Swiber noted that current strong performance in stocks and other risk assets has not yet sent the Fed a clear signal that demand is slowing.

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Vitalik releases original novel *Snowmoon* under the GPL v3 open source license.

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