SemiAnalysis: U.S. Government Sanctions Full of Holes, Suggests Anthropic's Fable/Mythos to Rename for Evasion

At Binance’s offline private gathering, renowned economist Hong Hao shared insights on topics including Binance’s launch of stock contracts for Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Motor, as well as global pricing trends for core assets. Hong stated that trading platforms lowering entry barriers for investors will help make these assets more open, diversify investor bases, boost price discovery efficiency, and reduce vulnerability caused by closed-off structures and homogeneous investor groups. “One of the core reasons why U.S. stocks have thrived compared to other markets is capital openness,” Hong commented, adding that expanding access to more asset classes is a positive development. Hong further pointed out that the value of a listed company is ultimately determined by its profitability, and the global market’s arbitrage mechanism will drive prices to converge. Unlike assets such as gold and Bitcoin, which derive their prices from market trading, listed companies generate consistent cash flows, so their value can be calculated by discounting future earnings. A company’s intrinsic value does not change regardless of whether it trades in South Korea, the U.S., or any other market. “Arbitrage activities will continuously eliminate such price gaps, driving the convergence of the same asset’s price across global markets,” he said. When discussing financial innovations like on-chain stocks, Hong argued that crypto technology is pushing global capital markets toward a 24-hour on-chain trading era, which essentially enhances the efficiency of global price discovery and represents a key manifestation of financial innovation. He also noted that financial innovation and regulatory relaxation are two sides of the same coin, and historical experience shows that grand narratives, credit expansion, and regulatory relaxation are three essential factors in financial market boom cycles.

At Binance’s offline private sharing event, renowned economist Hong Hao stated that both investment research and traditional fortune-telling are essentially forms of future prediction, differing only in their underlying methodologies. Hong Hao noted that traditional fortune-telling draws more on long-term empirical observations to derive patterns, while investment research relies on historical data, uses quantitative analysis to summarize patterns, and extrapolates future trends—both are fundamentally attempts to understand future uncertainty. He added that there is no one-size-fits-all standard answer for market predictions. “For example, I cannot give everyone a uniform answer on when to buy the dip, as investment decisions vary from person to person.” In his view, both cycle research and prediction are essentially explorations of future patterns, yet all predictions have their limits and require a sense of reverence. Hong Hao concluded: “Prediction is, at its core, peeking into the future, and ‘divulging heavenly secrets’ is inherently a highly challenging endeavor.”

Sony's semiconductor subsidiary announced that it will gradually resume operations at its factory in Kikuyo Town, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, starting August 4, and is expected to return to pre-earthquake production levels by mid-August.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, during SKHX’s sharp rebound today, a whale address starting with 0x890 was liquidated of short positions at 08:02, marking the largest single liquidation event on the entire network to date. Data shows that 4,892.6 SKHX short positions were forcibly closed in a short period, with execution prices ranging from $1,126 to $1,140 and a liquidation price of approximately $1,133.6. The total liquidation size reached $5.547 million, with position losses of around $866,000. At the time of liquidation, SKHX’s mark price had already risen to $1,146.5. The price continued to climb afterward; as of press time, SKHX trades at $1,152.5, up 23.4% intraday, with a 24-hour trading volume of roughly $1.558 billion and open interest of about $451 million. However, the whale did not exit the market post-liquidation. Just 17 seconds after its original short positions were cleared, it reopened a short position on SKHX. Currently, this address holds 770 SKHX short positions with 10x isolated margin, worth approximately $887,000, at an average entry price of $1,147.8, with an unrealized loss of around $3,337 and a liquidation price of $1,249.99. Compared to the liquidated short positions, the new position is smaller in size but retains the same trading direction.

At Binance's offline private sharing event, renowned economist Hong Hao stated that the large-scale correction window previously forecast by his team has opened, and is expected to last until around the end of August. A short-term double-digit rebound is possible, but the market remains in a deleveraging phase, so investors should exercise more patience. Hong Hao pointed out that South Korea's KOSPI index has now fallen significantly from its peak, and the market is entering a phase where "bulls deploy on dips while bears exit via stop-losses". Given that the index's weight is highly concentrated in a small number of tech giants, their fundamental performance will remain the key factor in judging whether the market has truly bottomed out. When asked whether investors should immediately allocate to tech stocks, Hong Hao said that market bottom signals are expected to become clearer over the next two to three weeks, so exercising patience is more important before that. He warned that a typical asset bubble burst often involves a correction of two-thirds or even more. While the market has already fallen by around 50% so far, further downside cannot be ruled out. Hong Hao also noted that besides price trends, factors such as South Korea's regulatory policies, deleveraging process, and overseas leveraged ETFs' impact on the market need to be monitored. He added that if this round of correction is completed quickly, it will also provide more attractive entry opportunities for investors who are bullish on related assets in the long term.

At a Binance offline private sharing event, renowned economist Hong Hao shared his latest views on Bitcoin’s long-term value and market cycles. Hong Hao stated that Bitcoin’s long-term logic is very clear: its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins determines its scarcity, forming a value foundation distinct from the traditional fiat currency system. When discussing the relationship between Bitcoin and gold, Hong Hao noted that both possess scarcity and long-term value storage attributes, though their sources of credit differ. Gold has thousands of years of human credit accumulation, while Bitcoin, backed by a decentralized network and fixed supply mechanism, is forging a new credit system. In the long term, gold’s target is $10,000, while Bitcoin’s target is $1 million. Regarding Bitcoin cycles, a key focus of the market, Hong Hao pointed out that limited supply makes this type of asset inherently cyclical. He believes that, per calculations from his team’s cycle model, an important time window for a new cycle may arrive during the transition between the third and fourth quarters of this year. However, he also reminded investors that, despite the approaching time window, they should remain patient and wait for further resolution of market uncertainties.