Hong Hao: Bitcoin’s long-term value stems from its scarcity and decentralized credit system, with its cycle window likely to open in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
2026.07.31 12:22:29
At a Binance offline private sharing event, renowned economist Hong Hao shared his latest views on Bitcoin’s long-term value and market cycles. Hong Hao stated that Bitcoin’s long-term logic is very clear: its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins determines its scarcity, forming a value foundation distinct from the traditional fiat currency system. When discussing the relationship between Bitcoin and gold, Hong Hao noted that both possess scarcity and long-term value storage attributes, though their sources of credit differ. Gold has thousands of years of human credit accumulation, while Bitcoin, backed by a decentralized network and fixed supply mechanism, is forging a new credit system. In the long term, gold’s target is $10,000, while Bitcoin’s target is $1 million. Regarding Bitcoin cycles, a key focus of the market, Hong Hao pointed out that limited supply makes this type of asset inherently cyclical. He believes that, per calculations from his team’s cycle model, an important time window for a new cycle may arrive during the transition between the third and fourth quarters of this year. However, he also reminded investors that, despite the approaching time window, they should remain patient and wait for further resolution of market uncertainties.
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