Analysis: Bitcoin's current rebound is driven by selling exhaustion rather than new demand, and concerns about the Strategy in the market still persist

June 17. Markets widely expect the first FOMC meeting post-Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Federal Reserve Chair will keep interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, stated that the key takeaway from this Fed meeting is likely “stability over a pivot.” She added that if oil prices hold steady and the Fed signals neutrality, BTC may trade in the $64,000–$68,000 range in the near term; if Warsh surprises with a hawkish tilt, BTC could retreat to $62,000–$63,000. A Bitfinex analyst noted that BTC has rallied roughly 13.5% from its June 5 low of $59,200, but this rebound is driven more by seller exhaustion and easing macro pressure than fresh buying. The firm added the rally stalled below the quarterly open price of $68,266, so it currently looks like a range-bound relief rally rather than the start of a new trend. Bitfinex also pointed out that open BTC futures contracts peaked at over $90 billion in October 2025, falling to around $42.6 billion by the end of May—with no significant rebuilding during the rebound. While funding rates have turned positive again (indicating leveraged longs are re-entering), spot demand remains weak. Concerns about Strategy persist. QCP stated that BTC has underperformed broader risk assets, partly due to market fears that Strategy may need to keep selling BTC to fund dividends. Strategy previously repurchased $1.5 billion in 2029 convertible senior notes, raised about $200 million by selling MSTR shares, and continued buying BTC—extending its cash runway to cover STRC dividends for roughly 7.5 months. Bitfinex noted that STRC hit a new low of $91.79 on June 16, down over 8% from its $100 face value, signaling weak corporate treasury demand. Last week, Strategy only added 1,587 BTC (worth approximately $100 million), far below the multi-billion peak of its accumulation phase. Bitfinex’s base scenario is BTC remaining in a range between the $60,000 support level and the $68,266 quarterly open price. To confirm a breakout, it needs continuous ETF inflows, STRC returning to a $100 face value, stable open futures contracts during price increases, and BTC closing above the quarterly open price. If the daily chart falls back below $60,000 and the $59,200 low, BTC may further decline to around $54,000 near its realized price.