Analyst: Bitcoin Exhibits Supply Structure Resembling Cycle Bottom, But Key Sell Pressure Indicator Yet to Signal Bottom

### Bitcoin’s Bottoming Traits Lacking Key Capitulation Signal: Analyst Crypto market analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted on June 22 that on-chain data shows Bitcoin’s market is mirroring the supply structure of a cycle bottom—though a critical “surrender indicator” has yet to confirm a bottom formation. The total supply held by Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) is climbing. Historically, this metric spikes sharply near cycle lows; today it sits at ~12.17 million BTC, hitting a recent local peak of 12.42 million BTC in early June. While it’s pulled back slightly since, it still boasts strong year-over-year growth: over the past year, the figure has more than doubled, signaling coins are steadily shifting from short-term traders to stable long-term holders. This transition boosts market resilience, as fewer Bitcoin remain in active circulation—reducing potential selling pressure and pointing to chip consolidation. But gaps remain to hit historical bottom levels: At 2015’s low, LTH-held supply hit ~15 million BTC; 2018-19’s bottom, ~16 million BTC; 2022-23’s trough, nearly 19.7 million BTC. Today’s 12.17 million BTC is moving in the right direction but hasn’t reached the historical range to confirm a bottom. The bigger red flag is the selling pressure indicator, which only triggers when the market is in loss mode (NUPL negative) to measure realized loss pressure deviation via SOPR—capturing the exact moment of loss-selling and capitulation. Currently, this indicator has been silent for 1,256 days (Bitcoin’s longest stretch ever), last firing on January 13, 2023, at the end of the prior bear cycle. In past cycles, selling pressure peaks hit 15%-32%—December 2018’s cycle low saw a 32% record high. **Conclusion**: Today’s market has an incomplete bottom structure: supply is maturing and LTHs are absorbing coins, but the capitulation side hasn’t signed off. The market is in a holding/consolidation phase, not a classic cycle’s final pressure release. Bitcoin has some bottoming traits but lacks the ultimate loss-driven capitulation signal. Strong confirmation needs either LTH-held supply rising to over 15 million BTC or the selling pressure indicator reactivating.