QCP Capital：市场关注点从美伊协议签署转向执行风险，美联储释放更长期维持高利率信号

QCP Capital’s daily observation notes that following the signing of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), the market’s focus has shifted from the agreement’s conclusion to execution risks. While Brent crude prices have fallen back below $80, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed—only around 14 vessels transit the strait daily, far below normal levels. Key watch indicators over the next 60 days will be progress in technical negotiations and the implementation of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but the median dot in its 2026 dot plot was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, further reinforcing the "higher for longer" stance. Meanwhile, the Fed lifted its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3.6%, underscoring that inflation remains a core constraint on current policy. In the tech sector, SpaceX’s share price has dropped from its post-IPO high of $211 to $155, a 27% decline from the peak, though still above its $135 IPO price. QCP believes the market narrative is shifting from the IPO boom to AI financing logic, with SpaceX increasingly emerging as a key component of the AI capital formation cycle. In the crypto market, Strategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin, holding 847,363 BTC—roughly 4% of the total Bitcoin supply—with an average cost basis of $75,651. QCP points out that while Strategy’s financing and accumulation mechanisms remain operational, its room to continue leveraging to add Bitcoin positions is narrowing, given the spot price is below its cost basis and preferred share prices have fallen below par value.