Analysis: BTC reclaiming the $70,700 level is the primary signal of a trend reversal, with some long-term investors accumulating at lower levels.
2026.07.12 22:32:43
Analyst Darkfost points out that Bitcoin trading below the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base is a hallmark of every bear market cycle. BTC has remained below this level for over nine months. The STH cost base currently stands at $70,700 and has consistently acted as a resistance level. In May, Bitcoin attempted to test the nearby level of roughly $82,000, only to pull back immediately. Since then, the STH cost base has dropped significantly, signaling that some investors have accumulated positions at lower prices, lowering their average holding cost. However, the price has yet to effectively hold above this key level. The analysis notes that a sustained recovery above the STH cost base will mark the first positive signal. Bitcoin is currently trading in a range of $59,000 to $64,000, a notable distance from the $70,700 resistance level. If BTC can later break through and hold above this level effectively, it will mean the entire short-term holder cohort has exited unrealized losses, and market sentiment could shift from bearish defense to structural recovery. Conversely, if resistance persists, the STH cost base will continue to decline, potentially extending the bear market bottoming cycle.
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