Bitcoin Volatility Spikes to 3.38% Yesterday, Reaching a New High Since September 2024

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest sold a total of approximately $7.1 million worth of Robinhood (HOOD) stock on Tuesday via its ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW).

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since August, after excluding Bitcoin (BTC) that has not moved in over 10 years, the proportion of BTC supply in a profitable state has remained around 60%. These long-idle BTC are currently in deep profit and have low liquidity; a significant portion may have been lost, so excluding them provides a more accurate reflection of the current market. Most BTC have now returned to profitable territory, but in the medium to long term, the market is still far from overheating. Investors are currently facing choices: hold positions, take profits, or exit with limited losses, especially for some positions that have been held for nearly a year. Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that BTC continues to fluctuate around current levels, and its subsequent trend will still depend on supply-demand dynamics.

OKX has officially launched its new Pre-IPO stock USD X contract (X-Perp). The update applies to web, mobile app interfaces, and APIs. The supported trading pair is OURAUSD UM (X Contract). This Pre-IPO X contract is a USD-settled delivery contract, with its underlying reference being a company that has not yet completed its IPO, enabling users to trade changes in the company’s valuation. Users do not hold any equity; they only trade the price fluctuations of this delivery contract. Its pricing formula is: share price × total shares ≈ market capitalization. Once the IPO is completed, the delivery contract will gradually convert into a standard stock delivery contract.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a whale address accumulated 1.148 million TRUMP tokens from Gate and OKX roughly one year ago, at a total cost of approximately $11.55 million. The address recently transferred its entire holdings to a new wallet; the current value of its position stands at around $2.16 million, translating to an unrealized loss of roughly $9.39 million, or an 81.3% decline.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting will be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. Market focus will likely center not only on the rationale behind the Fed’s 25 basis point rate hike in September, but also on officials’ assessment of how restrictive current financial conditions are and whether further rate increases will be needed. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index shows that U.S. financial conditions have remained loose since the fall of 2022 and are still on the looser end of the historical range. The option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Bond Index is also at historically low levels. Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management, argues that if the Fed focuses on these metrics, current financial conditions may not yet be deemed sufficiently restrictive. Meanwhile, U.S. headline PCE rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, while core PCE increased 3.0%. The current effective federal funds rate is around 3.9%, with the corresponding real rate standing at just roughly 50 basis points (based on headline PCE) or 90 basis points (based on core PCE) — significantly lower than the real rate level during Kevin Warsh’s tenure in mid-2006. Kramer noted that if the meeting minutes reveal officials’ discussions on financial conditions, real rates, and the pace of inflation cooling, it could help the market determine whether September’s rate hike was a one-off adjustment or the start of a new tightening cycle.

Solana Foundation Chair Lily Liu stated at Singapore’s Token 2049 event that the crypto market’s recovery trend is expected to persist over the next 12 months, even as artificial intelligence (AI) attracts more investor attention and capital. She emphasized that the core of tokenization is not to compete with traditional retail trading platforms, but to leverage blockchain to expand global investors’ access to U.S. assets. Liu noted that roughly 160 countries worldwide currently make up only around 5% of global stock market capitalization, indicating massive untapped global growth potential for blockchain and tokenized assets.