ARK Invest: Bitcoin’s decline diverges from whale accumulation, signaling a market cycle bottom.

US Senator Cynthia Lummis released a statement thanking her Democratic colleagues for their key contributions to the new draft of the CLARITY Act, and pledged to continue pushing for an agreement in the coming days to get the bill enacted into law. Lummis noted that consumer protection and supporting innovation are not mutually exclusive, adding that the draft demonstrates both goals can be achieved simultaneously. Earlier reports indicated that Senate Republicans unveiled the new version of the CLARITY Act following a briefing call with industry stakeholders. The revised text proposes to ban officials including the U.S. president, vice president, members of Congress, federal judges, and their spouses from receiving compensation via issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office; the relevant provisions will remain in effect until January 20, 2029. Restricted officials must also sell their crypto assets and investments in crypto-related firms, or place them in blind trusts over which they have no control; sales of crypto assets exceeding $1,000 are required to be disclosed.

According to CNBC, the new CLARITY Act under consideration by the U.S. Senate would ban the president and other federal officials from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies and other digital assets. Republican lawmakers updated the bill’s text on Wednesday, adding for the first time provisions restricting the president from profiting from crypto assets, with the rules applying to both the president and other federal officials. The CLARITY Act is designed to be the U.S.’s first comprehensive piece of legislation regulating the digital asset market, and remains pending in the Senate.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that U.S. Senate Republicans have released a revised version of the CLARITY Act following a briefing call with industry stakeholders. The ethics framework in the revised bill was developed by the White House in consultation with Republican Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno, and has not yet secured Democratic backing. The new text would bar U.S. officials—including the president, vice president, members of Congress, federal judges—and their spouses from earning compensation during their terms via issuing or sponsoring digital assets; these provisions are set to expire on January 20, 2029. Covered officials must sell their crypto assets and investments in crypto firms, or place them in blind trusts over which they have no control, with sales of crypto assets exceeding $1,000 requiring disclosure. The U.S. Department of Justice would be granted civil enforcement authority for ethics violations, including prosecuting trading platforms that knowingly operate banned tokens. However, Democrats oppose granting the DOJ sole enforcement power without extending authority to state attorneys general, and the relevant provisions could still be adjusted in the coming days. The revised bill retains the BRCA and Keep Your Coins Act, clarifying that non-custodial software developers and blockchain infrastructure providers will not be classified as money transmitters solely for maintaining decentralized networks, while safeguarding individuals’ right to self-custody of crypto assets. Stablecoin provisions remain unchanged: interest on idle payment stablecoin balances is banned, but rewards tied to actual activities like trading or staking are permitted.

The US National Cryptocurrency Association released a report stating that the US crypto industry directly employs 34,000 people; when including jobs supported by supplier industries and consumer spending of related workers, total employment in the sector is roughly 232,000. The report projects that by 2026, the industry will contribute over $55 billion to US GDP, with around $31 billion flowing to workers as labor income. Of the 232,000 supported jobs, approximately 75,000 come from supplier industries, and another 123,000 are driven by household spending of related employees. These figures are based on multiplier effects from input-output models and do not represent direct hires by crypto firms. Among the 34,000 direct roles, software, blockchain, and data engineering positions are the most numerous, at about 10,100. Regionally, California and New York support 57,649 and 53,766 jobs respectively, totaling over 111,000; Texas accounts for roughly 26,536 jobs. The 12 US heartland states defined in the report collectively support around 17,000 jobs. The report was commissioned and funded by the National Cryptocurrency Association, with analysis conducted by Pragmatic Policy Group. Its estimates are based on the US Bureau of Economic Analysis’ 2024 input-output tables and $23.22 billion in crypto industry revenue data, with model assumptions incorporated into occupational structure and industry mapping.

Baton Corporation, the developer behind Pump.fun, is hiring a Head of Growth Marketing, with a base annual salary of $400,000 to $1,000,000 plus performance-based incentives. Pump.fun founder Alon noted that the platform has grown to become one of the largest in the crypto industry with almost no paid marketing. The company’s next goal is to transition Pump.fun from a crypto-native product to the mainstream market, targeting an application with hundreds of millions of users. The role requires candidates to have hands-on experience in consumer app growth, a proven track record managing multi-million dollar marketing budgets, and familiarity with strategies including digital advertising, user-generated content (UGC), and short-form video clips.

Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, wrote in a post that the market currently holds two main views on when Bitcoin’s bear market will end: one is adherence to the "four-year cycle" theory, and the other is viewing Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macroeconomic factors. The "four-year cycle" theory holds that halving events remain the core driver of Bitcoin’s price cycles. Historically, Bitcoin has typically bottomed roughly one year after a cycle peak and about 2.5 years after a halving, with an average cumulative drawdown of around 80%. Based on this pattern, Bitcoin could still decline further in the current cycle and form a bottom in September or October. The other view argues that Bitcoin’s price will, like other major assets, be more influenced by economic growth, real interest rates, and changes in Federal Reserve policy going forward. Past Bitcoin bear markets have typically coincided with slowing economic growth or rising real interest rates, and this current downturn has unfolded against a backdrop of rising rate hike expectations and climbing real interest rates. Pandl noted he leans more toward the macro-driven view. If the Fed stops raising interest rates and economic growth remains stable, Bitcoin’s price may have already bottomed.