Analyst: Bitcoin bear market may be nearing its end, short-term holders' cost has dropped to $69,000.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that Bitcoin’s bear market has lasted roughly 9 months, affecting both short-term and long-term holders. The cost basis of short-term holders has fallen below that of long-term holders, a trend confirmed over three days, triggering a "bear market nearing its end" signal. This metric excludes BTC held for more than seven years when calculating long-term holders’ cost basis, to more accurately reflect economically active long-term positions. Darkfost stressed that this signal does not mean the bear market will end immediately or that the market bottom is already locked in; instead, it signals the market may be entering the final phase of the bear market, during which a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy is likely more rational. He noted that if short-term holders’ cost basis later rises back above long-term holders’ cost basis, this will mark a confirmation of the start of a bull market, serving as a reference to end DCA. Currently, short-term holders’ cost basis has dropped from $112,500 to $69,000.