Analysis: Bitcoin’s volatility falls to its lowest level since 2016, sustained deleveraging reduces liquidation risks

Bitwise has filed the final prospectus for its NEAR spot ETF, while releasing a 39-page NEAR investment report co-authored by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. The report outlines multiple price scenarios for NEAR: a base case projection of $155 by 2030, a bull case target of $562, and a bear case of $1.63. It does not shy away from the risk of sharp downside for NEAR’s price. In the bull case, Bitwise compares NEAR to Visa, noting that Visa processed $15.7 trillion in payment volume in 2024 and currently holds a market capitalization of roughly $701 billion, using this as one reference point for NEAR’s future potential value. The report concludes with the product page for Bitwise’s European NEAR ETP.

Bitfinex published a graphic analysis noting that Bitcoin’s current macro headwinds are primarily transmitted via oil prices, with oil’s trajectory hinging on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Last week’s breakthrough in the talks pushed crude prices down, easing inflationary pressure and in turn lessening the strain on risk assets from a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated U.S. Treasury yields. If negotiations stall, crude oil prices could rebound, intensifying market pressure through inflation, U.S. dollar, and bond yield channels. Thus, the current market needs to focus not only on Federal Reserve policy but also closely track developments in U.S.-Iran talks.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates on the firm’s Bitcoin tracker, stating, “Even more orange.” Per past patterns, the orange dots on the tracker represent Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase records, so this move may signal the company will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes to its Bitcoin holdings the day after such announcements.

Beating AI Express News: P Equity Research analyst Mr. P stated in a September 26 podcast that the widely cited claim that hyperscale cloud providers have "10-year demand visibility" is unconvincing, noting cloud firms can barely predict demand changes two years out, and AI infrastructure investment will ultimately remain constrained by cyclical spending. In the near term, AI inference demand will continue driving growth in demand for storage products including HBM, DRAM, and NAND. Mr. P projects next year’s capital expenditure (capex) by hyperscale cloud providers will reach $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion, with storage spending accounting for 50% to 60% of that total—equivalent to roughly $500 billion to $700 billion; UBS even forecasts this figure could hit $900 billion. Mr. P added that the current AI computing power bottleneck has shifted from a simple shortage of GPUs to other areas: power, advanced packaging, storage, and ABF substrates. Older-generation GPUs like the H100 still maintain high secondary market prices, while rental costs for B-series GPUs continue to rise. Supply tightness for ABF substrates is expected to persist until 2028 to 2030 or later, and orders for gas turbines from makers including Mitsubishi, Siemens, and GE Vernova are already booked past 2030. On the data center interconnect front, Mr. P predicts copper cables and optical communications will coexist for years to come. NPO is likely to see expanded adoption starting in 2027, while CPO may begin ramping up in 2028 to 2029, though mainstream adoption will not arrive until after 2030.

Goldman Sachs believes the market may currently be overpricing stagflation and U.S. Treasury yield upside risks. As tariff impacts fade, energy prices potentially decline, and AI technology drives cost reductions, U.S. inflation pressure is expected to ease. Meanwhile, while economic growth may slow, corporate core earnings remain resilient. In this "Goldilocks" scenario, enthusiasm for AI investment could reheat, and the year-end U.S. stock market rally may not need to wait until after the U.S. midterm elections to launch. Goldman Sachs partner Mark Wilson stated that recent market moves have shown related signs: AI-related assets, after months of consolidation, are once again attracting capital. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius noted that upside risks to U.S. economic growth are easing; as fiscal stimulus effects fade, gasoline prices and mortgage rates rise, economic growth may slow further, which will also limit room for global central banks to continue raising interest rates. Goldman Sachs U.S. Strategy Team Head Ben Snider added that while some sectors have posted temporary "excess profits," corporate core earnings are likely to sustain strong growth at least through the end of 2027. Based on this analysis, Goldman Sachs argues that if inflation continues to cool, economic growth slows moderately, and corporate earnings stay resilient, the market may gradually shift from its previous stagflation trade to the "Goldilocks" scenario.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has released a new article titled "The Cryptographic World Computer", stating that after years of technological evolution, Ethereum will gradually become a system with fundamental architectural differences from traditional blockchains. Vitalik points out that Ethereum already has core capabilities including general-purpose computing, proof-of-stake (PoS), zero-knowledge proofs, and layer-2 (L2) scaling. Going forward, it will further introduce adjustable computing architectures, multi-party block construction, highly optimized PoS, and deep integration of zero-knowledge proofs into its base layer. He predicts that by around 2030, Ethereum’s core mechanisms—transaction validation, consensus, block construction, privacy, and computing—will all undergo changes. These shifts include moving away from re-downloading and executing blocks toward SNARK-based validation and PeerDAS for data availability verification; transitioning from proof-of-work (PoW) to highly optimized PoS; and replacing single-party block construction with multi-participant block building. Vitalik notes that the future Ethereum decentralized network will not only serve security and censorship resistance, but also enhance performance through parallel storage, parallel computing, and privacy protection. The Hegota upgrade is likely Ethereum’s last "traditional" hard fork, after which recursive STARKs, automated formal verification, optimized consensus mechanisms, and anti-quantum technologies will become the main development directions. Ultimately, these advances will drive Ethereum to evolve from a mere ledger to a "cryptographic world computer" that integrates blockchain, cryptographic privacy, verifiable computing, and decentralized off-chain components.