Wintermute: Crypto markets have performed relatively strongly this week, but the uptrend has not yet been confirmed.

Wintermute’s market analysis states that June’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month decline since April 2020. The overall inflation rate dropped from 4.2% to 3.5%, below the market’s expected 3.8%. Markets have priced out the possibility of a July interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, but renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran and the resumption of port blockades pushed Brent crude up 15.54% for the week. Risk assets showed clear divergence: Ethereum (ETH) rose 3.64%, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.46%, while the Nasdaq Composite index fell 4.16%. Following the U.S. CPI release, Bitcoin briefly surged from around $62,000 to $64,900, and ETH jumped as much as 7% to $1,884, triggering roughly $134 million in short-position liquidations within an hour. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of approximately $191 million on Tuesday and Wednesday, ending a 10-day streak of net outflows. However, compared to June’s record $4.5 billion net outflow, the current inflow scale remains insufficient to confirm a sustained trend. Bitcoin held onto its post-CPI gains amid a sell-off in chip stocks, indicating the crypto market structure is repairing but has not yet formed a definitive upward trend. Wintermute believes that if spot Bitcoin ETFs maintain net inflows for a consecutive week and Bitcoin trades above $66,000 for several sessions, the market’s relative strength signal will be confirmed. This assessment could be invalidated if Brent crude breaks above $90 or the Strait of Hormuz is officially closed.