Prominent Trader: Bitcoin’s supply held by long-term holders in loss has exceeded levels recorded during the FTX collapse
2026.07.26 09:09:49
Renowned trader Killa posted that roughly 80% of cycle top indicators never triggered during the last Bitcoin bull run, and a similar situation could occur with bottom indicators in the future, meaning market bottoms cannot be judged by mechanically relying on historical signals. He noted that the supply of long-term holders currently in a loss state has exceeded levels seen during the FTX collapse and is approaching those of the 2018 bear market. Bitcoin’s realized price is currently around $50,000; in every past cycle, the price has tested the realized price of long-term holders, so a return to this region remains possible. However, Killa said it should not be assumed that Bitcoin will definitely drop back to this level. Many top indicators failed to trigger in the last cycle, and some bottom indicators may also become invalid in the future. Regardless, the current level of market loss is already comparable to that during the FTX incident and the 2018 bear market.
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