Bitcoin pullback hits crypto treasury firms: TD Cowen slashes Nakamoto’s target price by 58% while retaining a Buy rating.

Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen has cut the price target for Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA), slashing the post-stock-split adjusted target from $40 to $17—a 58% reduction—while retaining its "Buy" rating. TD Cowen analysts said the adjustment is mainly driven by pressure from Bitcoin price declines on Nakamoto’s highly leveraged capital structure. While the new target still implies around 275% upside from the current share price of $4.65, the stock is highly sensitive to Bitcoin price swings. TD Cowen forecasts Bitcoin will rebound to $100,000 by the end of 2026, roughly 25% below its all-time high of $126,000 set last October. The firm also expects Nakamoto to pause further Bitcoin purchases before 2027. Analysts noted that Nakamoto’s core value still stems from its Bitcoin holdings: the company currently holds 4,467 BTC worth approximately $290 million, ranking 22nd among public companies globally in Bitcoin holdings. However, its debt and preferred stock financing structure has eroded the asset value available to common shareholders. Recently, Nakamoto has completed several financial adjustments, including repaying roughly $45 million in debt, extending the maturity of $105 million in principal to June 2027, reducing financing costs, and approving a $25 million share repurchase program. Additionally, the company has shut down its previously operated medical clinic business and will focus on Bitcoin media, asset management, and advisory services going forward. Data shows NAKA’s share price has fallen more than 71% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has dropped around 26% over the same period. Market attention is shifting from "continuous BTC purchases" to the balance sheet structure and financing capabilities of Bitcoin treasury companies.