The probability that Bitcoin will rise to $70,000 this month stands at 26%.

According to Iranian media outlet Fars News, some media outlets "linked to the enemy" previously claimed that Iran had agreed to a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, sources familiar with the matter denied this assertion, stressing that Iran’s policy toward this strategic waterway remains unchanged.

According to CICC Research, since mid-to-late June, global AI-themed crypto assets have seen a noticeable correction, with the most severe pullback occurring in South Korea—where assets are marked by high leverage, extreme crowding, and a large retail investor base. Multiple factors drive this trend: the amplifying effects of high crowding and leverage; macroeconomic headwinds, including rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and renewed oil price spikes due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; and renewed bubble concerns surrounding the AI sector’s current state, such as Meta’s decision to rent out computing power and declining token spending. Notably, before the dot-com bubble finally burst in March 2000, the tech rally had already experienced at least four major, prolonged corrections. The triggers for those declines are highly similar to the current adjustment: short-term setbacks in industry trends; macroeconomic headwinds; and overheated valuation sentiment. The eventual rebound of tech stocks back then stemmed from the easing of these three pressures. Applying this to the current market, a stabilization or resumption of a new uptrend will require the alignment of three factors: the unwinding of high crowding and leverage; a reduction or resolution of Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations; and, more importantly, new catalysts from earnings reports and industry developments—specifically the July-August earnings season.

Over the coming week, macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports will roll out in droves. Market focus centers on Friday’s U.S. July non-farm payrolls report—the first full employment data set since the Federal Reserve held rates steady in July, which will directly shape market pricing for the September interest rate path. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s first post-IPO earnings report is imminent, and two days after the report, the largest single-stock lock-up expiration in U.S. stock market history will take place, involving roughly 911.5 million shares, with liquidity pressure a key area of concern. AI and storage-related names including AMD, SanDisk, and Western Digital will also release earnings, serving as critical barometers for demand for AI chips and storage. North America’s largest AI industry summit Ai4 2026 (August 4–6) and the global storage industry flagship MS 2026 Flash Memory Summit will run concurrently, with storage giants like Samsung and SK Hynix set to unveil roadmaps for HBM4E and V-NAND technologies. Below is a roundup of key events next week: Monday: U.S. earnings reports from Palantir, ON Semiconductor, and others Tuesday: U.S. June JOLTs job openings, factory orders, trade balance; SpaceX (SPCX) first post-IPO earnings; AMD earnings Wednesday: U.S. July ADP employment, ISM non-manufacturing PMI; SanDisk, Western Digital, Circle earnings Thursday: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended August 1, Challenger job cuts; SpaceX’s first batch of restricted stock lock-up expiration (up to ~911.5 million shares, potential value nearly $100 billion) Friday: U.S. July non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate; Fed officials Mester and Barkin to deliver speeches

During the weekend when traditional markets are closed, on-chain Nasdaq Trade.xyz leverages perpetual contracts to deliver continuous trading and real-time price discovery—features unavailable in traditional finance—pricing in advance the performance of U.S. and South Korean stocks for Monday. Most popular U.S. stock assets on Trade.xyz saw minor gains from their Friday after-hours levels, and are expected to rise slightly overall ahead of Monday’s pre-market. Their weekend performance: SpaceX is at $108.6, up from $107.8 in Friday after-hours; Micron (MU) at $847.9 vs. $812.47; SanDisk (SNDK) at $1244 vs. $1205; NVIDIA at $200.34 vs. $198.98; Marvell Technology (MRVL) at $193 vs. $185.6; Intel at $92.48 vs. $89.2; Google at $355.6 vs. $354.25; AMD at $485.02 vs. $472.12. Popular South Korean stocks on Trade.xyz have mostly declined from their Friday closing prices, with an expected 5-7% drop at Monday’s open. Their weekend performance: Samsung Electronics is at $169.5, down from Friday’s close of $182; SK Hynix is at $1133 vs. Friday’s close of $1191.

CITIC Securities stated that after missing the current interest rate hike window, U.S. stock valuations will face short-term pressure regardless of whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in September. However, in the medium and long term, the implementation of rate hikes is expected to lift valuation suppression; coupled with the "Productivity and Employment Working Group"’s positive stance on AI, the U.S. stock AI narrative is likely to persist long-term. On July 29, the FOMC held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, with three voting members backing a 25 basis point rate hike. Internal divisions within the Fed have become public, and the market has shown a split reaction of "dovish short end, hawkish long end". Rising inflation expectations have weighed on the U.S. dollar and provided a window for Japan’s Ministry of Finance to intervene in the foreign exchange market. The high growth of CSP’s cloud business has, to some extent, alleviated concerns about the sustainability of AI’s triple capital expenditures. Short-term rate-sensitive industries, high-valuation low-growth sectors, and small-cap stocks are under pressure. The next window for a shift in liquidity expectations will be the late-August Jackson Hole Symposium or the September FOMC meeting.

US President Donald Trump said that if a deal is quickly reached to limit Tehran’s nuclear program and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US will suspend its planned attacks on Iran. Iran and other Middle Eastern countries need time to finalize the agreement’s terms. Trump added that Israel backs the suspension of negotiations, while the US maintains strike readiness to act swiftly should the talks fail. Iran denied seeking a pause in military operations, stating its armed forces remain on high alert. Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any new attack from the US or Israel would trigger appropriate retaliation. Saudi Arabia has called for dialogue to de-escalate the situation.