Nomura significantly raises Samsung Electronics' profit forecast, with its operating profit projected to exceed 770 trillion won by 2028, while free cash flow and shareholder returns are set to surge in tandem.

Citrini analyst Jukan cited Nomura Securities’ latest report, noting that Samsung Electronics’ operating profit forecast has been sharply revised upward. Nomura projects Samsung’s operating profit will rise from the current approximately 391 trillion won (around $271 billion) to 635 trillion won (about $440.1 billion), then climb further to 774 trillion won (roughly $536.4 billion). Its free cash flow will correspondingly increase from 296 trillion won to 456 trillion won, and then to 563 trillion won; shareholder return yield will jump from 11.2% to 17.6% before hitting a final 22.3%. Operating profits and margins for DRAM and NAND are expected to continue surging over the coming years. This upward revision aligns with earlier research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA ML). Samsung Electronics has tied 60% to 70% of its memory sales to long-term supply agreements, whose terms “limit price declines but allow unlimited upside”, effectively locking in demand from key clients while retaining flexibility for price hikes. Against the backdrop of sustained surges in AI capital expenditure and constrained memory capacity expansion, the strong pricing momentum of DRAM and NAND is directly translating into Samsung’s profit flexibility and cash flow returns, with Nomura’s forecast underpinning this logic.