Analysis: Bitcoin may trade in the range of $58,000 to $67,000 in August; a breakout will still require macroeconomic and capital catalysts.
2026.08.05 14:58:48
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr has released his August Bitcoin market outlook, noting BTC is currently around 50% off its cycle peak of $126,200 hit in October 2025, with its price approaching the on-chain aggregate holding cost, and expects the cryptocurrency will likely trade sideways in August. The report outlines three scenarios: The base case (55% probability) sees BTC moving between $57,700 and $67,000, ending the month at $60,000 to $64,000. The bear case (30% probability) would see BTC break below $57,700, further testing the on-chain realized price of roughly $52,800. The bull case (15% probability) requires BTC to hold above $67,000, supported by sustained ETF inflows, falling US Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar, with a target range of $71,000 to $74,000. While BTC’s current valuation is near its on-chain cost zone and spot Bitcoin ETFs remain net inflows, providing market support, high interest rates, elevated US Treasury yields, and a strong dollar continue to cap upside for risk assets. The report also warns to monitor August macro events including US nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium for their impact on market liquidity.
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