A well-known trader: Historical bottom signal has re-emerged, and Bitcoin may still need several months of sideways consolidation to complete its bottom formation.

Renowned crypto trader Doctor Profit posted that a historical Bitcoin metric is signaling that a bottom has formed or is very near. In 2015, 2019, and 2022, bear market bottom formation phases all began when Bitcoin’s realized price for holders with a 3–6 month holding period crossed below that of holders with a 1–2 year holding period. He notes this means newer buyers are capitulating and selling at a loss, with Bitcoin gradually shifting into the hands of longer-term holders. This crossover is now occurring for the fourth time, while BTC’s price sits below the average cost basis of both groups of holders. However, historically this signal does not trigger an immediate reversal; Bitcoin typically undergoes several more months of sideways trading to complete its bottom formation, so this phase can also be viewed as a long-term accumulation zone. Doctor Profit believes the market is currently in the bear market bottom formation and long-term accumulation phase. The trader added that over the past several weeks, he has been accumulating BTC in batches within the $54,000–$64,000 range, and continues to build his position gradually by adding 5% of his total portfolio each time.