Glassnode: Bitcoin enters the late bear market compression phase, but real demand signals have not yet emerged.

Glassnode’s market analysis notes that Bitcoin is currently trading between its median realized price (~$63,000) and short-term holder cost basis (~$68,700). Spot trading volume has hit its lowest level since 2019, leaving the market in an extremely quiet, compressed state. Despite core inflation falling to 2.5% in July and stocks hitting new highs, Bitcoin has barely reacted, even weakening, indicating a clear lack of demand. On the other hand, selling pressure is easing: profitable supply is approaching levels seen in past bear market bottoms, the seller exhaustion metric has hit a cycle low, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the break-even line nine times. Meanwhile, buyers remain absent: ETF net inflows are minimal, and coins continue flowing into exchanges. Yet derivatives leverage has already positioned heavily for longs in advance, open interest is high relative to volume, and order book buy orders are thinning. Glassnode identifies key levels at $68,700 on the upside and ~$58,500 on the downside: a sustained break above the former, paired with a rebound in volume and ETF inflows, would confirm a market improvement; a break below the latter could trigger accelerated declines amid thin buy orders and crowded long positions. Overall, Glassnode remains cautious, describing the current state as a late bear market compression phase, with no clear signs of genuine demand emerging yet.