Nomura Securities: The June interest rate hike is just the start, with the European Central Bank likely to follow suit in September.
50 minutes ago
According to foreign media reports, 83% of economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September; 80% project the rate will hold at 2.50% through the end of the year, while 63% forecast it will stay at or above 2.50% until the third quarter of 2027. Of the 69 surveyed economists, 57 (around 83%) predict a rate hike next month, a figure higher than the 72% seen before the July meeting and 65% in June. This indicates that, following the June rate hike, market consensus is growing around another ECB rate increase in September. Nomura Securities noted: "The longer oil prices stay at current levels, and the higher they rise, the greater the risk of second-round effects emerging. The ECB cannot act until it sees these effects, but it can act in advance – which is exactly what it has been doing. The risk is that if the ECB only raises rates once, it will look like a minor adjustment, and as everyone knows, monetary policy cannot be operated that way. If they raise rates once, they will likely raise them again. Given that the June rate hike was an obvious choice for the ECB, we believe the likelihood of another rate hike is very high." (Source: Jinshi)
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