Analysis: BTC high-price holdings have dropped by 41.5% in 2025, indicating the market’s biggest supply pressure may be easing.

On-chain analyst Murphy states that all BTC positions bought in 2025 are currently underwater for their holders. Thus, aside from wallet migrations, the reduction in the size of 2025 BTC holdings most likely signals holders selling at a loss. Data shows that as of now, roughly 4.77 million BTC positions bought in 2025 remain, down 41.5% from their December peak. The downward trend of these holdings has unfolded in two phases: a sharp decline before February this year, followed by a significant slowdown in the reduction rate after February, though a steady downward slope persists. Murphy notes that 2025 BTC holdings represent the largest potential supply side in the current market. By contrast, BTC holdings accumulated in 2024, 2023, and 2022—still holding unrealized gains—have largely completed the release of high-level trapped positions, with their decline slope gradually flattening, indicating easing selling pressure from long-term holders. Historical data shows that during the bottom of the past two bear markets, high-level holdings saw notable declines: at the 2022 bear market bottom, holdings bought at the 2021 peak fell by ~51%; at the 2018 bear market bottom, 2017 peak holdings dropped by ~62%. Drawing on historical cycles, Murphy estimates that during the current bear market bottom, the decline in 2025 peak holdings could hit 50%-60%, with the current 41.5% drop leaving room for further liquidation. However, this assessment does not account for BTC purchased by institutions including spot ETFs and MicroStrategy; these holdings are mostly locked in long-term positions, which could reduce actual market supply pressure.