Analysis: 41.5% of BTC purchased in 2025 have been sold at a loss, with holding turnover approaching levels seen during the past two bear markets.
59 minutes ago
On-chain analyst Murphy noted that all BTC purchased in 2025 is currently in a loss position. Whenever the volume of these 2025-acquired BTC decreases, all reductions (excluding wallet transfers) stem from selling at a loss. As of now, 4.77 million BTC bought in 2025 remain, a 41.5% drop from their peak last December. The downward trend’s slope has two distinct phases: a sharp decline before February this year, followed by a slowdown after February, though it still maintains a notable downward slope. This cohort represents the largest supply side in the current market. Comparing data from 2022 to 2024, it’s clear that holdings with unrealized profits have largely passed the steep phase of decline. Even if prices drop further, changes in the volume of these holdings will no longer be significant. In other words, the potential supply from this group has already completed its turnover. Looking at the past two bear markets: during the 2022 bear market bottom, holdings from the 2021 peak dropped by 51%; during the 2018 bear market bottom, holdings from the 2017 peak fell by 62%. Murphy estimates that the current bear market bottom will see a maximum decline of 50-60%, with the current figure standing at 41%.
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Bitcoin falls below $63,000, with a 1.5% decline in the past 24 hours.
8 minutes ago
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