Analysis: Long-term Bitcoin holders have not engaged in large-scale selling, while early Bitcoin coins have become active again following the Coldcard hack incident.

MSCI is soliciting feedback on a new non-operating company identification methodology, a proposal that could result in Strategy and Metaplanet being removed from MSCI’s global investable market indices. Based on MSCI’s simulation using May 2026 data, Strategy, Metaplanet, and uranium investment firm Yellow Cake would be excluded from the MSCI All Country World Index Investable Market Index (ACWI IMI), while companies including SharpLink would be placed on a public watchlist. The new methodology adopts a two-step screening process. Companies first undergo an operating asset structure test; if they fail, they are evaluated based on five metrics: operating asset ratio, expense intensity, operating cash flow, fair value changes, and capital dependence. Failing the core test and triggering at least four exclusion criteria simultaneously may deem a company ineligible for index inclusion. For companies already included in indices, MSCI plans to apply relatively lenient thresholds, requiring failure to pass screening for two consecutive annual reporting periods before removal. Strategy’s free-float adjusted market capitalization in the May 2026 simulation stood at $23.9 billion, making it the largest company flagged for potential removal. MSCI noted that the proposal will not immediately alter index constituents, as it is soliciting feedback from market participants through September 30, with consultation results expected to be released by October 16. JPMorgan analysts previously estimated that Strategy’s exclusion from MSCI indices could trigger roughly $2.8 billion in passive fund outflows.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor published a post noting that digital assets compete across four distinct markets—they do not form a single market, but a new financial architecture comprehensively challenging the traditional financial system (TradFi). The breakdown: Digital capital (BTC) competes for wealth, with rivals including stocks, real estate, gold, and art. Digital credit (STRC) competes for income, facing bonds and private credit. Digital currency competes for savings, with competitors being money market funds and Treasury bonds. Digital payment currency competes for payments, with rivals including cash and bank deposits. Saylor elaborated on digital assets’ "currency spectrum" concept in his post yesterday, categorizing them as: Bitcoin = digital capital, STRC = digital credit, SR-strcUSX = digital currency, USDT = digital payment currency. On this spectrum, volatility and return potential decline gradually from left to right, while stability and transaction utility rise gradually. Saylor defines Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value—highly volatile, high-energy, a sound bearer asset; USDT as the ultimate medium of exchange, stable and easy to transact; digital credit and digital currency serve as bridges between capital and currency.

Wells Fargo raised Sandisk's target share price from $1,400 to $1,550, and lifted Dell Technologies' target share price from $505 to $545.

Analyst qinbafrank has published a research note comparing two leading U.S. optical interconnect sector stocks, Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE), noting their positioning differences underpin distinct investment theses. Coherent is the scale and platform leader in the U.S. photonics industry, with strengths including scale, product breadth, manufacturing platforms, long-term technology stacks, and customer coverage. Lumentum, by contrast, is a leader with higher profit density and earnings flexibility within the AI optics value pool, outperforming Coherent in growth rate, gross margin, operating leverage, current-period operational quality, and net liquidity. The size gap between the two leaders is narrowing rapidly: Coherent’s full fiscal 2026 revenue stood at 2.36 times Lumentum’s, a figure that fell to 2.03 times in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, and the midpoint of fiscal 2027 first-quarter guidance further narrows this gap to 1.84 times. Calculated using the midpoint of the upcoming quarter’s guidance, Coherent’s revenue is approximately 1.84 times Lumentum’s, but its implied non-GAAP operating profit is only around 1.04 times. For the quarter where Coherent’s revenue was ~2.03 times Lumentum’s, it generated just ~1.62 times Lumentum’s non-GAAP gross profit, 1.21 times operating profit, and 1.08 times net profit. This comparison clearly demonstrates that Lumentum is significantly superior to Coherent in profit quality and operating leverage, while the gap in revenue and profit scale between the two is shrinking rapidly.

Citigroup has raised the target price for AI and cloud computing services provider Nebius from $278 to $324, and increased Coreweave's target price from $142 to $159.

According to the latest compiled data on current accounts and earn products of major centralized exchanges (CEXs), stablecoin current yields on platforms including HTX, Binance, OKX, and Bitget still follow a structure of "high yields for small amounts, tiered reductions for excess amounts". Among these, yields for small tiers of USDT, USDC, and Binance U products are relatively prominent. For USDT: HTX offers an annualized yield of 10% for the 0-200 USDT tier, which drops to 1.95% for amounts exceeding 200 USDT; Bitget’s 0-300 USDT tier yields 6.59%, with excess amounts at 1.93%; Binance’s 0-200 USDT tier yields 4.83%, while excess amounts stand at 1.83%; OKX’s USDT yield is 1.94%. For USDC: HTX’s 0-200 USDC tier has an annualized yield of 8%, and amounts over 200 USDC yield 2.75%; Bitget’s 0-300 USDC tier yields 6.66%, with excess amounts at 1.84%; OKX’s is 2.18%; Binance’s is 2.16%. For other stablecoins: HTX’s USDT VIP tier offers an annualized yield of 6%-9%, applicable for amounts between 50,000 and 100,000 USDT; Bitget’s USDT VIP 0-300,000 tier yields 2.38%, with excess amounts at 2.06%. USDE’s displayed annualized yields on HTX and Bitget are tiered at 5% and 3% respectively, with excess amounts at 1.00%; HTX’s USDD yields 4.00%; Binance U’s 0-8,000 tier has an annualized yield of 8.57%, falling to 0.57% for excess amounts. Overall, current high stablecoin yields on major CEXs remain concentrated in small amounts, with yields for large funds generally lower. When comparing related products, users should pay attention not only to the nominal annualized yield, but also to tier limits, interest calculation rules, supported currencies, and the real-time availability of the products. The above data are platform-displayed yields and do not constitute investment advice.