More than 80% of ships have shifted to routes via Oman, as Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz is weakening.

Shipping data is revealing shifts in the actual traffic pattern of the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data shows that over the past two weeks, more than 80% of vessels transiting the strait have chosen the Omani side of the channel — a route authorized by the United Nations but previously opposed by Iran. Analysts note that while both the U.S. and Iran claim control over the Strait of Hormuz, neither has full control over this globally critical energy chokepoint. Hormoz Farahshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said it is increasingly clear that Iran has at least partially lost control over the strait. A month ago, Kpler barely recorded any vessels using the Omani route; that figure has now risen to over 80%. Meanwhile, the number of vessels opting for Iran-preferred routes has dropped sharply, undermining Iran’s ability to collect transit fees through the strait. The U.S. relies on maritime military deployments to continuously monitor shipping security. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said current oil volumes transported through or diverted around the Strait of Hormuz stand at around 15 million barrels per day, close to the pre-conflict level of roughly 20 million barrels per day. However, Iran still retains some deterrent capability. Analysts point out that while Iran has never truly achieved full control over the strait if that was its goal, creating risks and disrupting shipping via military operations remains a key strategic tool for it. Currently, Iran and Oman are discussing restoring freedom of navigation arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar said that if a relevant agreement is reached, it could create conditions for bringing the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table. But Trump recently stated that no negotiations or talks are currently underway between the U.S. and Iran.